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Dewey Sim

Donald Trump has sent mixed signals this week about whether he was planning to speak to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping soon.
But this uncertainty could also reflect caution on the part of Beijing as its leaders were reluctant to just “hop on a call”, according to diplomatic observers, who said the timing and nature of any conversation may offer more clues about China’s approach to Trump.
In the same week that tariffs on Chinese goods came into effect, Trump moved from signalling talks would happen within “24 hours” to saying he was “in no rush”.
Pang Zhongying, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, suggested this was part of Trump’s personal style, likening it to his earlier claim he could end the Ukraine war in a day.
“For leaders of other countries, there may not be a problem. But as far as China is concerned, holding a phone call is not that simple,” Pang said.
It was not common practice for China’s top leaders to “pick up the phone … to resolve issues” and the “Chinese way is different from Donald Trump’s way”, he added.
Asked about a possible Trump-Xi call, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Beijing had made its position clear, and “what is needed now is not unilateral tariff hikes but equal-footed dialogue and consultation with mutual respect”.
Beijing responded to the blanket 10 per cent tariffs, which Trump said were aimed at curbing the flow of fentanyl into the US, with a series of retaliatory measures targeting selected American goods that will come into force on Monday.


Trump had also imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada but then put them on pause for 30 days after talking to the two countries’ leaders.
Dominic Chiu, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group, said the recent tariffs and countermeasures were “simply too fresh” for a Xi-Trump call.
He also pointed to their different negotiation styles, saying Trump had always been spontaneous and was “more eager to begin negotiations and hop on a call with Xi to get the ball rolling”. But at the same time he would not want to be seen as “pining for a call”, which may explain his later comments there was no rush.
“By contrast, Xi has always been more cautious about proceeding into a high-level call without sorting out the details of the agenda first. Ultimately, Beijing remains unclear about what Trump wants from the relationship and is therefore averse to offering concessions,” Chiu said.
Any call would depend on the US response to China’s countermeasures and “further escalation would likely derail a discussion in the near term”, he added.
“Simply because China does not want to hop on a call with Trump this week does not mean that they do not want to negotiate or reach a deal,” Chiu continued.




“They need more time to figure out what Trump’s ultimate objectives are in imposing these tariffs, and whether or not whatever China proposes will be acceptable to the Trump team.”
Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said Beijing wanted to demonstrate it was more able and willing to retaliate compared with Trump’s first term, but also wanted to appeal to his desire for an informal “G2” that would see the two countries working together on global issues.
“While China faces mounting growth headwinds, it is a far more formidable economic, military, and diplomatic competitor than it was eight years earlier,” Wyne said.
Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said Trump was driven by a “transactional mindset” and hoped the tariffs would achieve some short-term deal.
But Sun said this approach was “quite damaging”, adding: “If the US truly wants to negotiate some kind of agreement, there’s absolutely no need to use such methods.”
Pang said China was still employing a similar strategy to the one adopted when Joe Biden was in the White House by “emphasising toughness” rather than taking Mexico and Canada’s more pragmatic approach.
But he warned this was “failing to seize the opportunity”, saying: “Trump and his team [might view this] as an opportunity to see if China can cooperate with them from the beginning. I am not sure if Beijing realises this is an opportunity. If this opportunity is wasted, I think it’s a pity.”


If the two leaders speak soon, it would be a sign that China was aware of the possibilities Trump’s second term offered, but continued delays would “indicate that the situation is becoming increasingly tricky”, Pang said.
Chiu said: “We already know Trump wants the call, so if a call is officially scheduled it would signal that Xi feels comfortable [with the talks] … Both sides have a stake in making the call look productive rather than just a restating of their respective positions.”


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News

China

Diplomacy

Uncertainty about when – or whether – the two will speak could reflect their different approach to the US-China relationship


Uncertainty about when – or whether – the two will speak could reflect their different approach to the US-China relationship.


US-China relations

Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s China policy