How China-Philippines clashes over Scarborough Shoal could be an early test for Donald Trump

The escalating dispute over the South China Sea atoll risks dragging in the US, a long-term ally of Manila

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Published: 11:00pm, 27 Dec 2024

China’s efforts to put more pressure on the Philippines over a disputed atoll in the South China Sea could prove an early test for Donald Trump when he returns to the White House next month.

Beijing took control of Scarborough Shoal – which is known as Huangyan Island in China and Panatag Shoal in the Philippines – in 2012, and it is now one of the major areas of contention between Beijing and the Philippines.

In recent weeks, China’s navy and coastguard have stepped up patrols around the reef to “resolutely safeguard” its sovereignty, and last Friday Chinese coastguards expelled a Philippine plane that “illegally intruded” into the airspace above the feature.

It follows a string of similar incidents, including one earlier this month when the coastguards used water cannon to block four Philippine ships that Beijing said were “trying to intrude into [China’s] territorial waters”.

Meanwhile, both countries have enshrined their claims into domestic law, a move some observers believe may prompt Beijing to start land reclamation efforts that could escalate into a conflict that would drag in the United States, a treaty ally of Manila’s.

Last month Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr signed two laws asserting the country’s maritime boundaries. One of these says much of the Spratly Islands, including Scarborough Shoal, are Philippine territory and claims the waters within a 12 nautical-mile (22km) radius from the islands as the country’s territory

Two days later, China published its own territorial baselines around the shoal – the first time it has made such a move in areas disputed by Manila – and has submitted nautical charts to the United Nations to stake its claim.