Trump policies could ‘naturally’ bring US allies closer to China, analysts say

Others do not expect improved ties between Beijing and Brussels, particularly in the next year

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US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 10 to 20 per cent universal tariffs on imports, with Canada and Mexico facing 25 per cent tariffs and China subject to “an additional 10 per cent tariff, above any additional tariffs”. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 9:00pm, 11 Dec 2024Updated: 10:26pm, 11 Dec 2024

A Donald Trump administration could inadvertently push US allies closer to China, as Beijing is poised to capitalise on any weaknesses in Washington’s alliances, analysts said on Tuesday at an event in New York hosted by the Asia Society.

“If it’s an approach that we’re imposing tariffs or other punitive measures on EU trade partners and China, that naturally will bring them closer together,” said Michael Hirson, a fellow on Chinese economy and technology at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis.

Trump threatened 10 to 20 per cent universal tariffs on imports on the campaign trail and late last month specified that Canada and Mexico would be subject to 25 per cent tariffs, while China would be subject to “an additional 10 per cent tariff, above any additional tariffs”.

The president-elect has also repeatedly hit out at Nato members for not fulfilling their share of defence spending and threatened to withdraw from the alliance if commitments were not met.

But Hirson, who was the US Treasury Department’s chief representative in China from 2014 to 2016, said the closeness of Beijing and EU member countries would depend on how “organised and disciplined” the Trump administration is.

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Sungmin Cho, an Asia Society fellow focused on Chinese politics, foreign policy and national security, said he expected enhanced ties between China and South Korea in a second Trump administration.