US-China ties under Donald Trump: first year of his presidency is crucial, says scholar

If Washington and Beijing can manage tensions in 2025, particularly on Taiwan, ‘we should all celebrate’, says prominent expert Minxin Pei

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US president-elect Donald Trump takes office for his second term as American president on January 20, 2025. Photo: Reuters

Published: 7:31am, 11 Dec 2024Updated: 7:35am, 11 Dec 2024

Policymakers in Beijing are watching closely for clues on how the coming Donald Trump administration will roll out its China policy in its first six months or so, a prominent China expert in the US said on Tuesday.

That would make 2025 crucial for both Beijing and Washington to manage their tensions and avoid a military confrontation over Taiwan, considered the most dangerous flashpoint between the two nuclear powers.

“The overall take I have is that we are very likely to see the worst and the most dangerous deterioration in the coming years, especially the first year,” said Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California.

Minxin Pei is a political scientist affiliated with Claremont McKenna College in California. Photo: Winson Wong

“The question is how low the relationship between the two countries can sink and whether tensions will spiral out of control and trigger a direct military confrontation,” said Pei.

If the two sides could manage their tensions in the first year, he added, particularly on Taiwan, “we should all celebrate”.

The assessment by Pei, an expert on Chinese governance, comes as policymakers in Beijing prepare with a mix of caution and anxiety for what is expected to be a harsh reset of the two countries’ already fraught relations.

Since the US elections in early November, there have been few clear signs as to the precise path the Trump administration will take in its China policy.