If Trump is hostile toward China, Beijing has many ways to respond, US analyst says
Especially during transition from Joe Biden, tensions could rise about Taiwan and South China Sea, a former State Department official says
If Donald Trump adopts a “hostile” approach toward Beijing in his second term as US president, China has many tools in its toolbox to respond, a former top US official on China policy said this week.
Rick Waters, who until last year served in Joe Biden’s administration as US deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan, said on Wednesday that Beijing is trying to determine how Trump will deal with China in his second term.
“What is going to happen in the next weeks will be an effort, largely by Beijing, to establish some authoritative channel to figure out whether they’re going to get the transactional administration or the angry one,” Waters said.
He also warned about the risk of escalating tensions regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea during the 10 weeks of transition to a second Trump administration.
Waters, now a managing director of the Eurasia Group’s China practice, led the State Department’s China House from 2022 to 2023, a unit set up under President Biden to address Washington’s growing rivalry with Beijing.
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He said that during Trump’s first term, US-China policy split into two periods: the first three years, 2017-19, was more “transactional” as Trump aimed to reach a deal with China to reduce the large trade deficit between them.
