New US president must send Beijing, Taiwan clear signals to cut ‘escalation risks’: report

European think tank says Washington’s dual deterrence strategy is ‘the only viable basis for preserving peace across the Taiwan Strait’

Reading Time:4 minutes

A report by International Crisis Group warns that strategic rivalry between the world’s two largest economies will intensify - no matter who is elected US president in November. Photo: AFP

Published: 10:00pm, 23 Oct 2024

The next United States president must make clear that Washington does not seek Beijing’s collapse and should not encourage efforts for Taiwanese independence, a recent think tank report suggested.

The suggestions were made in a report published last week by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, which warned that the strategic rivalry between the world’s two largest economies was set to intensify, no matter who takes office.

The report suggested that while the candidates – Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump – might differ in their approach towards China, both shared a view that it is a “chief strategic competitor” for the US, and that the next US leader must act to minimise “escalation risks”.

02:07

Xi and Putin vow stronger China-Russia cooperation to counter Western-led world order

The report described the existing “dual deterrence” strategy on Taiwan as “the only viable basis for preserving peace across the Taiwan Strait”.

Under that strategy, the US seeks to not only deter mainland China from attacking on Taiwan but also to deter Taiwan from declaring independence in case that triggers an attack.

“The US should continue working to persuade China that it would incur devastating military and economic consequences were it to attempt to invade Taiwan,” the report said, adding that part of that effort should involve bolstering Taiwan’s capabilities.

At the same time, the US should also tell Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te that taking a harder line than his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, “could complicate Washington’s efforts to be supportive of Taipei and play into Beijing’s coercion”.