Will Pakistan unrest dampen China’s belt and road ambitions?

Beijing shows signs of frustration as megaprojects in Pakistan, including Gwadar port and CPEC, face growing security risks, observers say

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People from Pakistan’s Baloch community take part in a demonstration on July 28 in the city of Gwadar, home to a Chinese-funded port project. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:00pm, 12 Aug 2024Updated: 1:44pm, 12 Aug 2024

Violent demonstrations in Pakistan’s southwestern port city of Gwadar in the past two weeks have exacerbated concerns about the country’s security situation and its impact on Chinese-funded megaprojects.

Despite Pakistan’s efforts to bolster security at China’s repeated request, the situation seems to be deteriorating, with a surge in unrest and violence targeting key Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, according to observers.

They warned that continued instability posed unprecedented challenges to the Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the belt and road strategy, Beijing’s overseas infrastructure investment scheme, and China’s “all-weather” partnership with Pakistan.

Tensions in Gwadar spiked after protesters led by a Baloch ethnic nationalist movement in the southwestern Balochistan province clashed with security forces deployed to guard the port project early last week.

While Pakistan’s army denounced “unprovoked assaults by a violent mob”, which it said killed one soldier and injured 16 others, protesters claimed dozens of Baloch people were arrested by authorities while mobile and internet services were suspended for days.

Located in resource-rich Balochistan, which borders Iran and Afghanistan and is Pakistan’s largest and poorest province, the deep-sea port of Gwadar, which gives Beijing direct access to the Indian Ocean, has long been seen as the centrepiece of the US$60 billion CPEC, which was launched over a decade ago.

The presence of CPEC-related Chinese firms and workers in Gwadar attracted the protesters to the port city, according to Eram Ashraf, an international relations scholar who specialises in China-Pakistan relations.