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US-China relations
Opinion
Shi Jiangtao
Shi Jiangtao

Opinion | In Cold War 2.0, the collective rise of middle powers could tip the balance

  • There are multiple geostrategic rivalries emerging between the West and authoritarian countries led by China, Russia and Iran
  • But it’s not clear how it will play out amid global instability, the decline of democracies and doubts over the ‘marriage of convenience’

Reading Time:3 minutes
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An anti-missile system operates after Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel. Photo: Reuters
Shi Jiangtao
Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel has pushed the world to the brink of a great-power collision, along with soaring tensions in the South China Sea and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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In another sign of a deepening new cold war, Washington last week vowed to help Manila push back against Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea during the first trilateral summit between the US, Japan and the Philippines. That was after “the largest upgrade in more than 60 years” to Washington’s defence ties with Tokyo, which was also aimed at Beijing.

Unlike the first Cold War between the US and the former Soviet Union, we are now seeing the emergence of multiple geostrategic rivalries between the West and a group of authoritarian countries led by China, Russia and Iran.

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World leaders call for de-escalation after Iran launches air attack on Israel

World leaders call for de-escalation after Iran launches air attack on Israel

While the dangerous escalatory cycle between Israel and Iran could drag the US into another intractable quagmire in the Middle East, China and Russia are also testing America’s limits as the last global hegemon in the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia.

Short of a full-fledged alliance to counter the US-led West, Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang have nonetheless edged closer strategically and militarily – largely over their shared enmity with Washington.

But how this Cold War 2.0 pans out is still up in the air given global instability, the decline of democracies worldwide, and doubts about the durability of “a marriage of convenience” among autocracies.

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The collective rise of the middle powers – especially those on the front lines of this new cold war, such as India and Japan – could also tilt the balance of power between the two opposing camps.

Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made some conciliatory remarks on the Himalayan border dispute with China, calling for a resolution of the military stand-off that began nearly four years ago.
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