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Xi-Biden meeting: risks of upset to ‘fragile stability’ at Apec summit 2023

  • Both sides face multiple potential flashpoints with uncertainty likely to continue for ‘a very, very long time’, one analyst says
  • Still, summit could reach common ground on ‘low-hanging fruit‘ such as climate change, trade, AI and the Mideast, experts say

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Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
Chinese President Xi Jinping will leave on Tuesday for San Francisco to attend this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where all eyes will be on the first face-to-face meeting in a year between him and his American counterpart, Joe Biden.

On the surface, relations between the two sides have settled into a “fragile stability”, but experts warn that many sources of friction persist and a host of chronic and complex contradictions could soon test the minimal consensus that the two may reach.

Despite the tempered expectations for any substantive breakthroughs in the dynamics between Washington and Beijing, it is possible that the long-awaited meeting on Wednesday could deliver something noteworthy.

The two leaders will announce a landmark agreement on the governance of artificial intelligence, alongside a consensus on other issues including direct flights, fentanyl and joint health research, the Post reported over the weekend.

There’s a whole variety of things that could disrupt the fragile stability that the relationship now seems to have achieved
Scott Kennedy, analyst
The event will also provide a platform for each side to offer assurances that the world’s two largest economies have no intention to decouple, to politely agree to disagree about various other issues, and to take all possible steps to prevent the two military powers from drifting into armed conflict.
Still, the two sides have continued to lock horns on many fronts, including Taiwan, the South China Sea, human rights, military exchanges, and curbs in tech and trade, as well as their stances on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, all while uncertainty hangs over the lead-up to next year’s US presidential election.
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