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Linda Lew

Tajikistan, a small landlocked Central Asian country, said last month that China would provide US$8.5 million to build a base close to the country’s border with Afghanistan, but no Chinese troops will be posted there.
It was the latest sign that Beijing’s footprint in Central Asia is continuing to grow, motivated by its security concerns and economic motives as it seeks to expand the Belt and Road Initiative.
Here are the key factors in their relationship.
Why does Tajikistan matter to China?
The former Soviet republic is Central Asia’s most impoverished country and shares a 1,357km (843-mile) border with Afghanistan, plus a 447km border with China’s western region of Xinjiang, much of which passes through mountainous terrain.
This geography, combined a government beset by corruption and factionalism, is an obvious security concern for Beijing, which is worried that extremist groups operating in Afghanistan and Syria – including some Uygur fighters – could use it and other central Asian countries as a route in to China.
China starts anti-terror drill with Tajikistan amid Afghan spillover worries
In the aftermath of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, more than 1,000 Afghan troops fled into Tajikistan.
“For China, security on the border is crucial and lies in its core interests in Central Asia, and the expansion of its presence is the most effective tool it possesses in this case,” according Temur Umarov, a research consultant with the think tank Carnegie Moscow Centre. “Tajikistan is the only country that borders Afghanistan and where China has the most influential role in the region.”
China is the biggest investor in its neighbour, accounting for 37 per cent of total foreign direct investment in 2018.
It is also the largest foreign debt holder, with China Export-Import Bank holding more than US$1.1 billion of Tajikistan’s US$3.2 billion of external debt in 2020, according to data from Tajikistan’s finance ministry.


What is their approach to security and extremism?
Both countries have taken a hardline approach to countering Islamic radicalism. China has been carrying out anti-terrorism and extremism campaigns in Xinjiang for more than a decade following a series of attacks which Beijing blamed on Uygur separatists.
Human rights groups and Western countries have accused China of crimes against humanity – including mass internment, forced labour and forced birth control campaigns – against Uygurs and other Muslim minorities in the region.
President Emomali Rahmon is a Muslim but his administration has also cracked down on public displays of Islamic belief, including banning beards, hijabs and studying in Islamic schools abroad.
China set for closer interaction with Afghan Taliban, urges US to engage
In 2016, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan formed an anti-terrorism mechanism to share intelligence and conduct joint training between their armed forces – but its future is now uncertain following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
Shih Chien-yu, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taiwan, said after 2016, reports began to circulate about Chinese military presence in Tajikistan, with a base in the east, near the border with China and Afghanistan.
China has repeatedly emphasised it did not have hegemonic ambitions, but Shih said: “The international community may not agree, as the People’s Liberation Army has extended its reach to overseas,” referring to the presence of Chinese police and troops overseas, most notably in Djibouti, where the PLA has its first overseas base.


Umaraov said the proposed base would be maintained by the People’s Armed Police Force, a paramilitary branch of the armed forces “responsible for maintaining public order and combating terrorism during peacetime”.
What are their economic ties?
While security is the top priority, it is also in Dushanbe and Beijing’s interests to develop Tajikistan, which has a mountainous terrain and poor transport infrastructure that adds to the cost of trade.
All the ongoing and proposed belt and road infrastructure projects in the country could help cut Tajikistan’s trade costs by between 4.5 and 5.6 per cent and reduce the time it takes to transport goods by up to four days, according to World Bank data.
A section of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline is also being built in Tajikistan and China wants to build road link to Iran that will pass through the country, according to the World Bank.
Meanwhile, Chinese mining companies have secured mining and exploration rights in the country, which is rich in minerals such as silver, lead, zinc and uranium.
China steps up engagement with Afghan Taliban leaders in Qatar meeting
But China’s presence risks a backlash if the locals feel they are losing out on the wealth generated by such projects, according to former US diplomat Susan Thornton.
“While China’s projects and presence are aimed at buying quiescence on its borders, they can also build resentment. China’s heavy-handed diplomatic and coercive human rights practices do not sit well with local populations sensitive to recent colonialism,” she wrote in a commentary for the Brookings Institute think tank.


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Troops from the two countries have conducted joint exercises and anti-terror drills. Photo: Xinhua

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Chinese and Tajik troops take part in an eight-day drill in Tajikistan’s high-altitude Pamirs region bordering China’s Xinjiang region and Afghanistan, in August 2019. Photo: Xinhua

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China

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The country’s long and porous borders with China and Afghanistan are an obvious security concern for Beijing following the Taliban takeover
Its geography is also an important factor in China’s infrastructure, trade and energy plans for Central Asia



The country’s long borders with China and Afghanistan are an obvious security concern but its geography is also important for Beijing’s economic plans.


Central Asia

Terrorism

Xinjiang

Belt and Road Initiative

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