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China on alert as post-election US threatens turbulent times ahead

  • Close result, regardless of outcome, could give new life to anti-China conspiracies between now and inauguration day
  • Beijing’s priority is to avoid confrontation and military conflict with Washington in ‘dangerous times’

Reading Time:7 minutes
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Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

As voters in the United States prepare for the presidential election, the South China Morning Post is exploring the potential ramifications for China. The latest part of the US election series looks at the possible impacts of a close result, regardless of who wins the race for the White House.

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Beijing is on high alert as the chaotic White House race moves into its final days, with Communist Party insiders and observers warning that US-China relations have entered one of the most uncertain and dangerous times in decades.

The Chinese leadership is making it a priority to avoid confrontation and military conflict with Washington, they say, with increasing turbulence expected between now and the winner’s inauguration on January 20.

A close election – with either President Donald Trump or his Democratic contender Joe Biden losing by a narrow margin – could result in a protracted constitutional crisis, stoking chaos and violence and keeping the world on edge, but could also give new life to conspiracies designed to scapegoat China, according to Chinese security and political analysts.

“Both candidates have a knack of using China as a sort of punching bag during their campaigns and they are expected to continue playing the China-bashing card, especially right after the election,” said a Chinese government adviser who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

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“Should there be a crisis over the US election outcome, it will be a high-risk period for bilateral relations, risking another turn for the worse towards conflict, especially under Trump’s watch,” he said.

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