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Entangled US-China-Taiwan relations likely just got more complicated after President Tsai Ing-wen’s big re-election victory

  • After Taiwanese voters send a message to Beijing, analysts say it might retaliate, further complicating China’s strategic rivalry with Washington
  • Tactics could include military intimidation or trying to convince Taipei’s remaining 15 diplomatic allies to switch their ties to Beijing

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Taiwan is expected to face increased pressure from the mainland after President Tsai Ing-wen’s landslide re-election victory. Photo: Handout
Sarah Zhengin Beijing
Taiwan may face retaliation and increased pressure from Beijing after President Tsai Ing-wen’s landslide re-election victory, adding uncertainty to the already tense relationship between China and the United States, analysts said.
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Tsai, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won a record-breaking 8.2 million votes, or 57 per cent of the total, in Taiwan’s election on Saturday against 5.5 million votes for her main opponent, Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu, in what was widely seen as an endorsement of the Tsai administration’s tough stance against Beijing.

Observers said Beijing was likely to further squeeze Taiwan – a self-ruled island that it claims as part of its territory – in the international space, complicating its intensifying strategic rivalry with Washington.

While strong US support of Taiwan under Tsai would be expected to continue amid heightened tensions with China, the triangular relationships would also hinge upon the outcome of the US presidential election in November and progress in trade talks between Beijing and Washington, analysts said.

Jonathan Sullivan, a Taiwan expert at the University of Nottingham, said that neither China nor the US wanted a conflict over Taiwan, but that there were unknowns including US President Donald Trump’s volatility and his re-election bid, as well as how the major powers would manage the two nations’ deteriorating relationship.

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