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Edward Howell

Who could forget the statement by the recently promoted North Korean first vice-minister of foreign affairs Choe Son-hui after the unsuccessful Hanoi summit: “I have a feeling that Chairman Kim has lost the will to continue US-DPRK exchanges.”
Yet, in light of the recent foreign ministry statement from Pyongyang, perhaps Kim has not lost the will to deal with US President Donald Trump, but, rather, with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Adviser John Bolton.
As the North Korean leader visited Russia for a summit with President Vladimir Putin, Kim himself stated his desire for a “very useful and successful” visit.
Perhaps it is mere symbolic diplomacy, but nonetheless, a signal to Washington that Russo-North Korean ties are not in decline.




Pyongyang did not hold back in blaming Pompeo for the stalled negotiations with the US, after two rounds of presidential-level summits.
It lambasted Pompeo’s “indulgence in reckless remarks” as evidence “that whenever Pompeo pokes his nose in, the talks go wrong without any results even from the point close to success”.
Putin calls for ‘international guarantees’ at first summit with Kim
The statement, from Kwon Jong-gun, director general of the foreign ministry’s American affairs department, affirmed Pyongyang’s wishes to have a “dialogue counterpart … who is more careful and mature in communicating with us”, should there be any “possible resumption of the dialogue with the US”.
This rhetoric from North Korea is likely to be a reaction to a statement made by Pompeo to the US Congress, where he branded Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Kim Jong-un as “tyrants”.
The tit-for-tat rhetorical battles between Washington and Pyongyang have not yet abated. Yet, North Korea highlighted, once more, how relationships between Kim and Trump remain cordial.
Kim said at the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly that “the personal ties between me and him [Trump] are not hostile like the relations between the two countries”.
And Choe Son-hui reaffirmed post-Hanoi that the two leaders displayed a “chemistry” that was “mysteriously wonderful”.

Pyongyang seems increasingly suspicious of the Bolton and Pompeo double act, coupled with Kim Jong-un’s desire to be seen as having equal status to Trump.
The two leaders negotiating at the two summits have, for one thing, provided a means of justifying Kim’s policies across the domestic population.
Yet, Washington’s all-or-nothing approach towards dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue remains at odds with the North’s preferred incremental approach towards denuclearisation.
Pompeo and Bolton’s hawkish stance only widens the gulf between the two states’ negotiating strategies.
Only a few hours before the foreign ministry statement, North Korean state media announced that Kim had “guided a test-fire of a new-type [of] tactical guided weapon”, with a “peculiar mode of guiding flight and the load of a powerful warhead”.
The last “ultra-modern tactical weapon” test was carried out in November. But the Kim regime may not have abandoned its nuclear ambitions, even during a moratorium on missile and nuclear testing (the latest missile and nuclear tests came in 2017).

Kim’s dual policy of “byungjin” initiated in 2013, which calls for developing nuclear weapons and the economy simultaneously, was abandoned last year in favour of a “new strategic line”.
Instead of pursuing simultaneous nuclear and economic development, Kim declared in his 2018 New Year speech that North Korea had accomplished “the cause of perfecting the national nuclear forces”, suggesting a shift towards a closer focus on the economy.
We should not come to the quick conclusion that this tactical test is accelerating the end to the Pyongyang’s moratorium on missile and nuclear testing. But to dismiss the test as merely a symbol of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities may also underestimate the hermit state’s intentions.
Putin-Kim summit can aid peace process on Korean peninsula 
Nuclear weapons continue to have importance for North Korea’s projection of itself as a modern and scientific power in the international system.
Although the days of fire and fury and of pushing nuclear buttons may – at least for now – be on hold, the US continues to be the North Korean state’s enemy, being the “cause that pushed us [North Korea] into a nuclear state”, as the latest foreign ministry statement said.

While “byungjin” may be over, that does not mean that nuclear development is off the agenda for Kim and the Workers’ Party of Korea.
Indeed, satellite imagery recently highlights the presence of railcars near the notorious Uranium Enrichment Facility and Radiochemical Laboratory at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre.
Again, it would be highly premature to infer that nuclear developments will arise out of this, but such activity does not eliminate the possibility of the North engaging in the transport of radioactive material, or reprocessing campaigns.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s calls for a third Trump-Kim summit, and his attempts to narrow the gap between Washington and Pyongyang continue.
Kim has given the US a time frame of the “end of this year” to “make a bold decision”, namely, sanctions removal.
While Russia remains tied by UN sanctions regarding economic relations with North Korea – and unwilling to violate its sanctions commitment – Pyongyang is making a concerted effort to keep its few international “friends” on side.
Diplomacy with Russia – even if only for the visual spectacle – not only pits Russia against the US, but also puts China in the mix. Exploiting great power politics seems to be one of Pyongyang’s strategies at present.
Indeed, it would not be surprising if a Xi-Kim summit occurs soon, given Kim’s visit to the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, after his trip to Russia.
Visiting two “friends” in the space of as many weeks is one way for Kim to show that North Korea is not leaving any options unexplored, as it continues to try to extract gains from the US.
Time to take note, Mr Pompeo.

Edward Howell is an ESRC scholar in international relations at the University of Oxford, specialising in East Asia and the Korean peninsula


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North Korea

Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin and the exploiting of great power politics

Pyongyang did not hold back in blaming US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for the stalled negotiations with the US, after two rounds of presidential-level summits. Photo: KCNA

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, April 25, 2019. Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

FILE - This Aug. 29, 2017, file photo by the North Korean government shows what was said to be the test launch of a Hwasong-12 intermediate range missile in Pyongyang, North Korea. For some observers, the nightmare result of the second summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is an ill-considered deal that allows North Korea to get everything it wants while giving up very little, even as the mercurial leaders trumpet a blockbuster nuclear success. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2019, in Hanoi. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

North Korea said it test-fired a new type of “tactical guided weapon” and demanded that Washington remove Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from nuclear negotiations. Photo: AP

Vladimir Putin-Kim Jong-un summit: what do both sides aim to gain?

Russian President Vladimir Putin with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok. Photo: EPA-EFE

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Thursday in Vladivostok amid stalled nuclear talks with US

A man passes by a TV screen showing images of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who are expected to hold a meeting. Photo: AP

(FILES) In this file photo taken on June 12, 2018 US President Donald Trump (2nd R) and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (2nd L) sign documents as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) and the North Korean leader's sister Kim Yo Jong (L) look on at a signing ceremony during their historic US-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore. - The US State Department said April 18, 2019 it remained ready to negotiate with North Korea after the regime called for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to be excluded from future nuclear talks. "The United States remains ready to engage North Korea in a constructive negotiation," a State Department spokesman said.The spokesman said the United States was aware of the North Korean foreign ministry's demand regarding Pompeo but did not comment directly on it. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)

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China

Diplomacy

Edward Howell writes that North Korean diplomacy with Russia not only pits that country against the US, but puts China in the mix, too


Edward Howell writes that North Korean diplomacy with Russia not only pits that country against the US, but puts China in the mix, too.


Kim Jong-un

Donald Trump

Russia

Moon Jae-in