Opinion: what Macron’s victory in French presidential election means for China

Emmanuel Macron will be sworn in as President of the French Republic on May 14.

His victory last Sunday has shaken the traditional foundations of the French political party system, organised around a left-right divide: the mainstream right-wing and left-wing parties were eliminated at the first round of the election and Macron has run on a social-liberal platform seeking to bridge the gap between the two sides.

No observer, however, expects major change when it comes to foreign policy. During the campaign, Macron has not articulated a detailed road map for France’s foreign relations under his presidency. But the general orientations that will affect France-China relations in the coming years are already apparent from the team of advisers he has gathered around him, the positions he took on specific issues during the election campaign and his brief experience in government as economy minister between 2014 and last year.

As elsewhere, Macron’s victory has been interpreted in China as a major setback inflicted against rising populist forces in Europe. This matters particularly when viewed from Beijing. Since the election of Donald Trump, Chinese diplomacy has sought allies for the pro-globalisation and pro-free trade narrative championed by President Xi Jinping in his speech at Davos in January.

Relations with Europe play an important role in that new posture against protectionism. In that sense, the election of a European leader promoting a positive narrative on globalisation is music to Chinese ears.