A second Donald Trump presidency could lead US allies to pursue ‘more independent policies’: analysts

His avowed ‘America-first’ approach is said to create unease and uncertainty over handling of South China Sea, Korean peninsula and Ukraine support

US partners prefer to accelerate bolstering deterrence against likes of China, Russia and North Korea, but moving towards wait-and-see-mode

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Donald Trump is the favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Photo: Reuters

Published: 7:30am, 17 Jan 2024Updated: 10:36am, 17 Jan 2024

US allies and partners are nervous about Donald Trump’s positions on the South China Sea, the Korean peninsula and Ukraine, and might pursue more independent policies while boosting their mutual ties this year, Indo-Pacific experts said on Tuesday.

American leadership under Trump, the prohibitive favourite for the Republican presidential nomination this year, would bring about “significant changes” in the postures adopted by US allies on issues like nuclearisation or their own defence, according to Charles Edel of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Nobody should be surprised that a change in US administration could prompt “allies to begin pursuing more independent policies”, said Edel, a former senior adviser to the State Department, during an event at the Washington based-think tank on Tuesday.

Citing an anonymous Japanese diplomat, he added that “whoever is elected in the United States, you have to act like it’s Christmas morning”, suggesting that despite being wary of Trump’s return, allies would try to work with the US.

US allies and partners would prefer to “accelerate” bolstering deterrence against the likes of China, Russia and North Korea, but they were moving towards a “wait-and-see-mode” pending the American election results this November, Edel said.