Crisis over Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance suggests Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has overplayed his hand
- President Trump signalled his confidence in intelligence suggesting Khashoggi has been killed – and that Riyadh was involved
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may see an opportunity to drive a wedge between the US-Saudi alliance
The Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance and alleged murder has erupted into a full-blown scandal after two weeks of grisly revelations, prompting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to get on his horse and visit Riyadh and Ankara, where he has probably negotiated with both sides for a face-saving way to end a burgeoning crisis.
That the Americans are finally stepping in after weeks on the sidelines makes sense, as this crisis is partly on them: lost in the ever escalating series of leaks from Turkish intelligence of the horrifying details of what may have transpired in the Saudi embassy in Istanbul is the question of “why?” Why would Saudi Arabia reach across borders, into a chief regional rival, and carry out an operation of this sort without expecting serious blowback?
Emboldened by this convergence of interests with the Trump administration, MBS went on to isolate Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and doubled down on the disastrous war in Yemen despite howls of protest from much of the rest of the world. He even managed to get the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to fly to Riyadh for what he thought was a camping trip and, while there, pressure him to resign. Hariri was then forced to read a scripted resignation letter on television – it sounded like an anti-Iran manifesto.
These audacious moves were met with hardly any resistance from Washington. Indeed, when Rex Tillerson, the former US secretary of state, called on Riyadh to temper its actions on Qatar, Yemen, and Lebanon, he was swiftly overruled by Trump, and was fired a few months later. Given what appeared to be full backing for his actions by the Americans, MBS must have calculated that taking out a prominent critic like Khashoggi might have raised a few eyebrows but would blow over shortly.
Turkey is the only country that can lead the Muslim world
But the crown prince may have overplayed his hand this time. The massive blowback has already tarnished his reputation and led to a rare instance of bipartisanship among US lawmakers, who have questioned the kingdom’s special relationship with Washington and threatened punitive measures if it is proven Khashoggi was indeed killed in a Saudi Arabian operation.
The White House is now on the back foot, jockeying to protect its client just as King Salman has climbed down from his throne to clean up after his son.
