Watches and Wonders 2025: Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe shine, but Bulgari and Vacheron Constantin steal the spotlight … with world’s thinnest tourbillon timepiece and most complicated wristwatch

Apr 3 , 2025

Swiss tennis legend Roger Federer at the Rolex stand during the opening day of the Watches and Wonders fair, in Geneva, on April 1. Photo: EPA-EFE

While expectations for 2025 are not particularly rosy, given the weaker China market and shifting global consumption patterns, top luxury watchmakers are holding little back in Geneva

Watches and Wonders, the yearly fair currently under way in Geneva, Switzerland, always provides a snapshot of the current state of the luxury watch industry. With market leaders such as Rolex, Patek Philippe and Cartier making headlines with their latest launches, and independent brands unveiling their new creations, the event attracts journalists, retailers, collectors and fans, all checking out the booths – some of them quite extravagant – located within Palexpo, a convention centre near the city’s airport.

Switzerland is still the undisputed leader when it comes to luxury watchmaking, but after years of growth during and after the coronavirus pandemic – when high-end customers unable to travel splurged on timepieces and other costly items – the market contracted in 2024. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, Swiss watch exports dropped by 2.8 per cent last year to 25.9 billion Swiss francs (US$29.59 billion), mainly because of a slump of more than 25 per cent in China.

A visitor takes a photo at the A. Lange & Söhne stand on the opening day of Watches and Wonders 2025 in Geneva. Photo: EPA-EFE

While the US and Europe have fared slightly better, China, which includes key markets such as Hong Kong and Macau, has been affected by an economic slowdown caused by a housing crisis and youth unemployment on the mainland.

The large number of “novelties” at Watches and Wonders often causes waiting lists among diehard fans, but expectations for 2025 are not that rosy if the first two months of this year are any indication. While Swiss watch exports grew by 4.1 per cent year on year in January 2025, they declined 8.2 per cent year on year in February, with China and Hong Kong remaining weak.

Cyrille Vigneron, president of the Watches and Wonders Geneva Foundation, says that it is hard to predict what 2025 will bring and that the uncertainty of the last few years has shifted global consumption patterns. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, for instance, Russian citizens who moved to Dubai and Istanbul were responsible for a significant rise in luxury spending in those cities, similar to what happened in China during the coronavirus pandemic, when domestic consumption rose because of travel bans that kept the Chinese from shopping abroad. “The stimulus package that the government has put in place in China will be very important,” says Vigneron in an interview in Geneva. “I’m quite confident that China will still be a driving force but the question is when and how? It’s very difficult to cast a prediction but if the government tries to stimulate domestic consumption and fix the real estate bubble, China will again have a period of growth.”

A Rolex display at Watches and Wonders 2025 in Geneva. Photo: AFP

Speaking of uncertainty, Vigneron agrees that while the US has been doing very well in recent years – overtaking China as the largest market for watches – the protectionist policies of the Trump administration are now sowing doubts about the resilience of its luxury consumers.

One thing that most can agree on is that the watch industry has become very polarised, with a small number of independent manufacturers – and big groups such as Cartier owner Richemont and Omega owner Swatch Group – dominating the market. According to a report from Morgan Stanley and consultancy LuxeConsult, the so-called “Big Four” (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille) are “capturing an impressive aggregated 47 per cent market share”.

While it’s too early to find out what the response to this year’s fair will be – the event will open to the public over the weekend – the mood was buoyant. Both Vigneron and Matthieu Humair, CEO of the Watches and Wonders Geneva Foundation, confirmed that registration numbers have been higher than in previous years.

Swiss watch manufacturer Tag Heuer’s stand at Watches and Wonders 2025. Photo: EPA-EFE