6 predictions for a decade of change in Bali, from the rise of medical tourism to the end of cheap stays and the bulldozing of Kuta

Tourists have returned after the pandemic and, as more cars and scooters clog Bali’s roads, urban development may cause rice paddies to disappear

New tourist hotspots will emerge and medical tourism will be a growth industry, but cheap rooms will become a rarity as the sun sets on backpacker magnet Kuta

Reading Time:6 minutes

A street in Canggu, a tourist resort town on Bali’s west coast. The Indonesian island could change significantly over the next decade. Photo: Dave Smith

Published: 4:15pm, 24 Mar 2023Updated: 12:56am, 25 Mar 2023

The only thing that has surprised people in Bali more than the speed at which tourists vanished at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic is how quickly they have returned.

April 2022 – the first full month after Indonesia nixed mandatory quarantine for arrivals – 58,000 international tourists visited the island, according to data from its main airport, Ngurah Rai International. By the end of the year, the same number were arriving every day.

Some 2.2 million foreign tourists visited Bali last year – nearly 50 per cent more than the Ministry of Tourism had predicted in June – even though China, the largest feeder market before the pandemic, remained closed.

This year, the ministry predicts, up to 5 million foreign tourists will visit the so-called Island of the Gods, with the number expected to climb further in following years.

A street in Kuta, a traditional tourist hub in Bali, uncharacteristically quiet during the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFE

Add another 10 million domestic tourists per annum and a picture emerges of Bali restaking its claim as one of the most popular destinations on the planet, with all the stresses and strains that will entail.

Here are six predictions from someone who lived in Bali before, during and after the pandemic, about how the island will look and feel in the coming decade.