China to stick with ‘around 5%’ GDP target in 2025 despite Trump tariff threat: economist

US President-elect Donald Trump has said he would impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods

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Shoppers walk past through outdoor stalls at the Wangfujing shopping street in Beijing. Photo: AP

Published: 11:00am, 8 Nov 2024

China is expected to set its economic growth target again at “around 5 per cent” in 2025 despite the looming threat of increased tariffs under Donald Trump’s second term as US president, as Beijing would accelerate stimulus support accordingly, according to a prominent Chinese economist.

The potential trade shock may slow overall growth in early 2025, but China’s economy is expected to pick up momentum later in the year to achieve the annual growth target, said Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of Finance and Banking.

President-elect Trump – if he stays true to his campaign promises- is set to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, in addition to a 10 per cent blanket tariff on all imports, when he takes office next year.

“The tariff shock brought by Trump’s inauguration will have a significant negative impact on China’s export growth in 2025,” Zhang wrote in an article published on his WeChat social media channel on Wednesday.

Exports account for around 20 per cent of China’s total gross domestic product, with the United States one of its biggest trading partners.

Trump, who started a trade war with China in his first term as president, also campaigned with threats to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations status, as well as to clamp down on Chinese manufacturers evading US tariffs by setting up factories abroad in countries like Mexico.