appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Alice Li

Sylvia Ma

Kandy Wong

In an era when technology seems to defy all limits, one age-old barrier has managed to endure: geography.
As geopolitical turbulence continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping artery, especially for energy – the search for other fuel sources, and other means of transport, has shifted from a strategic luxury to an existential necessity. This need has become particularly acute for China, a major consumer of fossil fuels.
Middle Eastern imports remain a significant component of China’s energy mix, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates supplying about 30 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports last year, according to S&P Global Energy.
While uncertainties mount over the long-term stability of maritime energy transport, Russia – with its vast energy reserves and sizeable land border with China – presents a viable alternative for Beijing, and a trade opportunity for Moscow.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Beijing this week for his 25th state visit, attention shifted to the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Upon completion, the project would deliver an estimated 50 billion cubic metres (1.77 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas to China annually via a 2,600-km (1,616-mile) route passing through Russia and Mongolia, at a previously projected construction cost of US$13.6 billion.
Despite the high-profile summit between Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, which included over 40 agreements signed by the two leaders, progress on the pipeline is expected to continue at a slow pace.
Although Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reportedly said that some contracts for the pipeline are approaching “final agreement” following the summit, China has remained relatively quiet.
A joint statement issued in the wake of Putin’s visit said the two countries would “continue to strengthen and develop a comprehensive energy partnership” and “ensure smooth energy transport”.
However, no explicit mention was made of the project, despite language in China’s latest five-year plan naming the “central route” of a natural gas pipeline as an area for “preparatory work” over the next five years – a clause widely believed to be referencing the Power of Siberia 2.


And in response to a question about the pipeline at a press conference on Thursday – one day after Putin’s departure – Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Guo Jiakun said “China and Russia engage in close cooperation in many fields, including energy,” without specific comment about the capital-intensive project.
Elsewhere in the statement, the countries affirmed they would “deepen cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy”, referencing in-progress construction work for units of the Tianwan and Xudabao power plants that are set to hold reactors of Russian design.
While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened concerns about energy security, Beijing is far from an impulsive spender.
Despite closer relations with Russia, officials remain cautious about such a level of commitment, even with the move’s potential as a useful hedge against present and future maritime disruptions.
“From China’s perspective, a lack of mentioning of the project suggests that there has not been too much urgency on this front despite the challenges from the Strait of Hormuz,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China region at ING.
According to Song, the delays are most likely to stem from disagreements over pricing, though added China may also be prioritising diversity in its energy supply and avoiding dependence on any single partner.
“Given this project has been discussed for many years but not yet greenlit despite the ongoing geopolitical factors, it appears the odds for construction starting soon look low, unless there are compromises made on pricing,” Song said.
“[This] would likely require new catalysts driving Russia’s urgency for selling or China’s urgency for buying.”
Despite a lack of visible progress on the Power of Siberia 2, the two countries have followed through on numerous other natural gas agreements, as Russia’s vast supply complements Beijing’s growing energy demands.
After the US, Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas. In 2023, according to the International Energy Agency, it produced 2.2 million terajoules – a unit of energy equivalent to 1 trillion joules (239 billion calories).
Currently, two major routes have been finalised to transport natural gas from Russia to China. In 2014, the two countries signed a 30-year, US$400 billion agreement providing China 38 billion cubic metres of gas each year via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, also known as the “eastern route”. The route began operations in 2019.


Last year, 38.8 billion cubic metres of natural gas were sent through the Power of Siberia 1, according to Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy giant that built the pipeline and is expected to construct the Power of Siberia 2.
Construction is also progressing on the Far Eastern route, which would provide about 12 billion cubic metres of natural gas each year through a link to an existing pipeline. The agreement on the route was signed in 2022, with an expected opening date of early 2027.
But analysts noted China’s broader energy strategy has shifted significantly in recent years, with Beijing adopting a more pragmatic approach to long-term cooperation, especially as it relates to fossil fuels.
“Since the announcement of the ‘dual carbon’ goals – peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 – China has been trying to balance energy security with a longer-term transition away from dependence on imported fossil fuels,” said Shen Xinyi, senior adviser at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a non-profit think tank based in Finland.
“For Beijing, Power of Siberia 2 is not just an energy cooperation project – it is also tied to long-term considerations around energy transition, future gas demand uncertainty, and strategic bargaining power.”
Shen said that while overland gas from Russia does carry increasing strategic value, providing Beijing an alternative to vulnerable maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, China is unlikely to rush into expensive multi-decade gas contracts to guard against short-term geopolitical tensions.
As negotiations continue over the details of the Power of Siberia 2 project, it remains unclear what price China would consider acceptable for the pipeline’s enormous supply.
“China is reportedly seeking more favourable gas prices than were contracted for the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline,” said Rajiv Biswas, CEO of research group Asia-Pacific Economics.
In September, Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed several documents, including what the Russian company described as a “legally binding” memorandum on the Power of Siberia 2.
The agreement came during a visit from Putin to attend China’s Victory Day Parade and the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit.




In its announcement of the memorandum’s signing, Gazprom also stated that the gas would be sold at prices lower than those charged to European customers. Russian state news agency TASS quoted CEO Alexey Miller as saying the favourable pricing reflects the proximity of the East Siberian gas fields to China.
But even without price considerations, the division of responsibility for construction between the two countries also has yet to be revealed.
Under the contract for the Power of Siberia 1, Gazprom was responsible for developing the gas fields, building the gas processing plants and constructing the pipeline within Russia, while CNPC oversaw the construction of supporting infrastructure in China, including domestic pipelines and storage facilities.
Despite the delays, analysts noted the Power of Siberia 2 – and energy cooperation between China and Russia more broadly – remains a strategic benefit as geopolitical risks rise.
“For Russia, the pipeline represents an important economic opportunity to boost gas exports, since western Europe has switched away from Russian gas imports,” Biswas said.
“For China, the pipeline offers a more geopolitically secure source of gas than LNG imports, which have been significantly impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Li Lifan, a Russia and Central Asia specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said the Power of Siberia 2 project, if completed, would strengthen the foundation for bilateral cooperation.
Additionally, Putin’s visit – coming just days after US President Donald Trump’s trip to China – showed the two countries’ determination to deepen strategic collaboration and jointly navigate global uncertainties, according to Li.
“The visit represents a boost to morale amid international sanctions for Russia. And it’s also a strategic opportunity to safeguard energy security for China.”


What China really means when it says it’s being ‘strategic’

Trump signs bill targeting China’s Russia energy imports days before Xi’s US visit

China pushes back against US sanctions bill targeting Russia’s top energy buyers

Power of Siberia 2 pipeline talks stall over China-Russia price dispute: sources

China-Russia relations

Putin left China, without a pipeline deal. Why didn’t the Hormuz crisis open the valve?

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Putin is pushing for a blockbuster oil and gas deal in China. Will he get it?

China and Russia hold trade expo as Putin and Trump visits draw global attention

Attendees learn about Russian food products at the 10th China-Russia Expo in Harbin, northeastern China’s Heilongjiang province, on Saturday. Photo: Xinhua

More gas from Russia? China flags new pipeline links amid Iran energy crisis

Gazprom’s Chayanda oil and gas condensate field, one of the largest in eastern Russia, is a resource base for the Power of Siberia pipeline. Photo: Tass/Abaca Press/TNS

Mongolia still expects new Russia-China gas pipeline to go ahead

Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping make a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow in March 2023. China and Russia are continuing to discuss a second gas pipeline. Photo: TNS

A worker inspects a liquefied natural gas facility in Tianjin, northern China. Russia is China’s third-largest supplier of LNG. Photo: Xinhua

China hedges its energy bets as Russia pipeline plan remains on hold

Though the Power of Siberia pipeline is up and running, the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 line from Russia to China is in doubt. Photo: Reuters

Economy

Global Economy

China Economy

News

World

Russia & Central Asia

Though this week’s China-Russia summit featured many agreements, none progressed the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline


Though this week’s China-Russia summit featured many agreements, none progressed the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline.


Putin left China, without a pipeline deal. Why didn’t the Hormuz crisis open the valve?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Though this week’s China-Russia summit featured many agreements, none progressed the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline

Though this week’s China-Russia summit featured many agreements, none progressed the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline