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Xiaofei Xu

Baden-Wurttemberg stands on the front line of Germany’s “China shock 2.0”. A hub for carmakers including Mercedes-Benz, the region has faced a wave of job cuts over the past year as Chinese firms rapidly gain global market share. In the German media, some have warned the area risks becoming “Germany’s Detroit”.
Yet despite the economic strain – and polls showing the economy was the top issue for local voters – China barely featured in campaigns during the run-up to Baden-Wurttemberg’s state election this past weekend.
Millions of voters went to the polls, with the centre-left Green Party narrowly finishing first ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came third after making significant gains.
For analysts, the relative absence of China as an issue during the election reflects Germany’s continued reluctance to confront Beijing more directly – a stance that contrasts with the mood in other European nations like France.
“The debate is much more on what can we actually change ourselves instead of blaming China, because many have accepted that China has just very competitive and good products,” said Bernhard Bartsch, a China expert at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies.
“Politicians – especially at a regional level – cannot win much these days by pointing out how problems originate in China. People don’t want analysis, but solutions.”
Another reason for the lack of discussion of China in the state election is that policies towards Beijing are usually made at the national and European level, according to Bartsch.
Cem Ozdemir – the Green Party’s leader in Baden-Wurttemberg – said he would advocate for Brussels to require Chinese companies operating in Europe to source components locally and work with European partners.


Candidates may also have refrained from publicly criticising China because a tougher stance on Beijing could draw strong opposition from major companies in the state that still have high hopes for the Chinese market, according to Bartsch.
Mercedes-Benz vowed to further localise production in China and double down on the market during its annual results conference last month.
On trade with China, Germany differs significantly from more hawkish countries such as France. Berlin and Paris recently clashed over the European Union’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, which would establish local production rules determining eligibility for government funding and procurement. France strongly backed the initiative, but Germany and other member countries sought to tone it down.
A potential point of conflict further down the line is the possibility that German companies will increasingly take decisions that will benefit their interests but not necessarily the German economy vis-a-vis China, Bartsch said.
Meanwhile, the economic situation in Baden-Wurttemberg is deteriorating with no signs of improvement in sight yet, industry insiders warned.
Bosch, the world’s biggest automotive supplier, announced another round of 13,000 job cuts in Germany last year – many of which will be in Baden-Wurttemberg – citing the need to save money and increase competitiveness.
The metal and electrical engineering industry in the state lost more than 30,000 jobs last year, according to Sudwestmetall, an industry employers’ association.
“We do not expect strong growth this year either, but rather a further decline in employment,” said Peter Sebastian Krause, chairman of the association, in a statement.
The fact that the far-right AfD scored its best result to date in a western German state election – winning 18.8 per cent of the vote in Baden-Wurttemberg – could be a potential concern for Chinese car brands operating in the region in the future.
Automotive policy was one of the nine key planks of the party’s campaign. Among its proposals was a protectionist “Buy BW” programme that would require all public companies and state authorities to purchase only vehicles produced in Baden-Wurttemberg for their fleets.


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Why the ‘China threat’ was barely mentioned in Germany’s latest state election

Candidates in the Baden-Wurttemberg state election attend a press conference in Stuttgart after the release of exit polls on March 8. Photo: AFP

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Baden-Wurttemberg’s car industry is facing steep job losses amid intense Chinese competition. But local candidates largely avoided blaming China


Baden-Wurttemberg’s car industry is facing steep job losses amid intense Chinese competition. But local candidates largely avoided blaming China.


Why the ‘China threat’ was barely mentioned in Germany’s latest state election

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Baden-Wurttemberg’s car industry is facing steep job losses amid intense Chinese competition. But local candidates largely avoided blaming China

Baden-Wurttemberg’s car industry is facing steep job losses amid intense Chinese competition. But local candidates largely avoided blaming China