What next for China’s export machine after top US court blocks Trump’s tariffs?

China’s sprawling export sector is eyeing a brief window of opportunity to front-load shipments to the United States following a Supreme Court ruling that appears to have eased tariff rates – even as industry insiders remain wary of potential shocks ahead. All eyes are now on the coming Beijing summit, where US President Donald Trump is set to meet President Xi Jinping in a visit that could prove decisive for the future of bilateral trade, analysts and exporters said. Chinese goods had been subject to an additional 20 per cent in levies imposed by Trump in his second term: “reciprocal” duties of 10 per cent and a further 10 per cent in “fentanyl” tariffs. That was before the US Supreme Court struck down those measures on Friday. As a temporary replacement, Trump issued an executive order on the same day, imposing a 10 per cent levy on all goods entering the United States, effective on Tuesday. He later announced on Truth Social that the rate would be increased to 15 per cent – the maximum allowed under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. The shift provides Chinese exporters with a net reduction in the near term, capped at 150 days under the obscure trade law cited. While exporters welcomed the drop in rates, some said they were still contending with a complex, multilayered tariff regime. Analysts also cautioned that longer-lasting, potentially higher tariffs could still be imposed under Section 301 – used to address trade practices deemed unfair – or Section 232, which invokes national security concerns. China’s “small parcel” e-commerce exporters did not stand to benefit from the Supreme Court ruling, as the suspension of the duty-free de minimis exemption for low-value shipments remains in place. Chinese exporters are already ramping up production to front-load goods to the US. One exporter of stationery products in Zhejiang said the company had called workers back to the production line before the Lunar New Year holiday had ended. “Now there is a window, we are calling workers to end the Lunar New Year holiday one to two days early to front-load exports to Walmart,” said the company’s president, who requested anonymity. But he added that he feared Trump would roll out an even more complex patchwork of measures. “We will have to navigate the unfolding sequence [of the ruling],” he said. “What if rates surge back to higher levels after 150 days? He’s unpredictable.” Hopes for longer-term clarity could rest on Trump’s high-stakes talks with Xi. The White House has announced that he will travel to China from March 31 to April 2, his first trip to the country since returning to power in early 2025. “Businesses will carefully track these presidential engagements in Beijing. They are becoming ever more critical,” said Wang Ruocheng, president of Jingtian Mould Group in Zhejiang, which ships auto parts to the US. “We are hopeful that the new window of opportunity will stay open for much longer after Trump’s trip.” On Monday, the Ministry of Commerce said it was conducting a comprehensive assessment of the implications of the US Supreme Court ruling. “We have also noted that the US side is preparing alternative measures, such as trade investigations, in an effort to maintain tariffs imposed on trading partners. China will closely monitor this and firmly safeguard its own interests,” the ministry said. Mainland China and Hong Kong stand to benefit the most among Asian economies from the effective decline in US tariffs, as the 10 per cent “fentanyl” tariff they faced had been applied universally to all exports. By contrast, the new tariff does not apply to “critical goods” sectors, such as critical minerals and pharmaceuticals, according to a Goldman Sachs report published on Monday. But the broader implications for regional economies remain unclear. Most countries face only relatively modest changes, considerable uncertainty persists and the Section 122 tariffs are ultimately temporary, the report’s authors said. Morgan Stanley estimated in a Sunday report that China could see tariffs reduced by about 7 percentage points on a trade-weighted basis, which could raise gross domestic product by an annualised 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in the near term. Meanwhile, many US importers are scrambling to recover the tariffs they have already paid. Many small and midsized American importers, which have been disproportionately hurt by Trump’s duties and want refunds quickly, may be disappointed, said Doug Barry, an international trade adviser and a former executive of the US-China Business Council. “It will take considerable time to generate checks, and the specific process may need to await decisions by a lower court, as the Supreme Court did not opine on this aspect of the case,” he said. David Townsend, a partner in Dorsey & Whitney’s International Trade Group, said it remains unclear whether importers would have to sue the US government or simply file a refund claim with US customs. Washington could make lawsuits and claims difficult if it chooses to take a hard line, he added. Additional reporting by Kandy Wong and Ralph Jennings

What next for China’s export machine after top US court blocks Trump’s tariffs?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi may determine whether current reprieve gives way to a more durable trade deal, analyst says

The high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi may determine whether current reprieve gives way to a more durable trade deal, analyst says