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Kandy Wong

China is accelerating efforts to secure its copper supply chain, designating the metal as critical across strategic industries such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and defence amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Provincial governments are leading the charge. On Monday, Jiangxi – already a hub for heavy rare earth mines – pledged in its 15th five-year plan to develop a world-leading hub for advanced copper-based new materials.
That follows a similar move in Shandong, where provincial authorities vowed on December 9 to build a 200 billion yuan (US$28.4 billion) copper industry by 2027, aiming to become a “globally competitive copper-smelting base”.
The push underscores copper’s evolution into a “strategic metal”, driven by electrification demands and global supply shortages, said Allan von Mehren, chief China economist at Danske Bank.
However, analysts say copper is unlikely to become a geopolitical lever for Beijing akin to rare earths, given China’s reliance on imported raw materials.
“China’s push to develop its copper industry is primarily driven by economic security and supply-chain-resilience considerations, rather than by a narrow export-led strategy,” said Alberto Vettoretti, managing partner at consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates.
Policy priorities focus on ... upgrading the domestic copper value chain, including the development of high-end copper materials
Alberto Vettoretti, Dezan Shira & Associates
Chile is currently the largest copper producer in the world, China is the world’s top importer and consumer of copper, and Goldman Sachs analysts expect China to account for roughly half of copper demand growth by 2030.
China remains “structurally dependent” on imports, and that reliance is expected to stay between 50 and 70 per cent by 2035 because of limited domestic resources, according to Vettoretti.
“Against this backdrop, policy priorities focus on strengthening upstream exploration, building strategic reserves, and upgrading the domestic copper value chain, including the development of high-end copper materials,” Vettoretti said.
In February, 11 government departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, released a plan aiming to increase China’s copper ore reserves by 5 to 10 per cent by 2027.
Unlike rare earths, where China dominates mining and refining, its grip on copper is looser.
“China mainly exports copper in the form of semi-finished products or finished goods that embed copper, whereas rare earths are often exported directly as processed materials,” said Liu Wan-Hsin, a senior researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, adding that copper demand is “structurally strong” because of its wide range of uses, including in semiconductors and data centres.
“Finally, copper is easier to substitute and recycle than rare earth elements.”


Prices have been reacting to the strategic shift. Spot copper on the London Metal Exchange hit an all-time high of US$11,816 per tonne on Friday.
“Demand is expected to continue rising into 2026, putting upwards pressure on prices,” Liu added. “At the same time, geopolitical factors – such as tariffs, trade frictions and supply-chain reshoring – add cost and uncertainty to the market.”
Goldman Sachs on Monday increased its 2026 average price forecast for copper to US$11,400, up from US$10,650, citing a lower probability of US tariffs in the coming months due to inflation concerns.
However, the bank sees a 55 per cent probability that the administration of US President Donald Trump will slap a 15 per cent tariff on copper imports by mid-2026, potentially rising to 30 per cent in 2028.
The market’s geopolitical “beta” has increased, meaning prices are more sensitive to policy signals and strategic narratives than in the past, Vettoretti said.
Meanwhile, von Mehren said that, “if the West wants to be more independent from China, there is little alternative to either protect domestic refiners with tariffs on refined copper but keep copper ore exempt, or support them with subsidies to ensure profitability and the desired investments”.
He noted that Chinese refiners are incentivised to export because global prices exceed domestic ones. “If China outcompetes global refiners, the West becomes more – not less – dependent on China.”
Yet, the leverage appears to remain limited.
“Unlike rare earth elements … China remains a major net importer of copper concentrate,” said Genevieve Donnellon-May, a non-resident Vasey Fellow at the Pacific Forum and a researcher at the Oxford Global Society.
“This dependence on overseas supply constrains Beijing’s ability to weaponise copper in the same way it has rare earths, and this could make any coercive use more costly and less effective.”


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Beijing views copper as critical for EVs and AI, but a reliance on imported ore limits China’s ability to use the strategic metal as leverage


Beijing views copper as critical for EVs and AI, but a reliance on imported ore limits China’s ability to use the strategic metal as leverage.


China bets big on copper, but ‘weaponisation’ risks low, unlike with rare earths: analysts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Beijing views copper as critical for EVs and AI, but a reliance on imported ore limits China’s ability to use the strategic metal as leverage

Beijing views copper as critical for EVs and AI, but a reliance on imported ore limits China’s ability to use the strategic metal as leverage