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US-China trade war
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Double-edged sword: US probe into China’s drone dominance is a risk, analysts say

Washington’s investigation could strengthen its hand in future talks with Beijing – but may have unintended consequences

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Employees work on the production line of drones at the workshop of an aviation technology enterprise on May 16, 2024, in Anqing, Anhui province of China. Photo: Wu Junqi/VCG via Getty Images
Alice Li
The United States has launched investigations into imports of drones and polysilicon – two sectors where China holds a global lead – in a move that could pave the way for tariffs and give Washington leverage in trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, analysts said.
The US Bureau of Industry and Security released a document on Monday, seeking public comments as it moves forward with the investigation, which began on July 1 under “Section 232” of the Trade Expansion Act.

“Interested parties are invited to submit written comments, data, analyses or other information pertinent to the investigation,” the notice’s authors said.

While the investigation does not explicitly name China, it will examine American reliance on imported unmanned aircraft systems – including drones used for commercial, industrial and military purposes – as well as polysilicon, a critical material used in solar panels and semiconductors. Beijing holds a dominant position in both sectors.

Section 232 grants the US president the power to impose duties if a Department of Commerce investigation finds that certain imports threaten national security. Trump has used the law to levy tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars, and the 50 per cent copper tariff he threatened last week also came from a Section 232 probe.

Alfredo Montufar-Helu, a senior China-based adviser to C-suites, said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if Washington’s investigation was used to gain leverage for future trade negotiations with China.

But he also cautioned that the move was a double-edged sword.

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