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Ralph Jennings

Kathleen Harrison, the owner of an arts-and-crafts shop in the San Francisco Bay Area, is dreading what might happen if the US government raises tariffs on a slew of Asian economies later this summer.
The 33-year-old is already under pressure as it is. The cost of key supplies such as paper stock has doubled this year due to a surge in demand, forcing her to hunt down bargains to keep her prices stable.
Now, she worries that higher duties on imports from China and other major exporters will squeeze her margins even more in late 2025.
“Just the cost of everything is going up,” she said as she laid out a display of stickers, mini jigsaw puzzles and bookmarks outside her store in the suburb of Alameda.
American businesses have largely managed to swallow the cost of higher tariffs since Trump launched his global trade war in April, but that is almost certain to change if the US goes ahead with threatened duty hikes on China and other major trading partners over the next few weeks.
Trump announced double-digit tariffs on goods from dozens of countries on April 2 – which he styled as “Liberation Day” – before suspending the duty hikes for 90 days soon after. But that pause is now coming to an end.
As of Wednesday, Trump had notified 20 countries – mostly Asian nations with large factory bases – of plans to roll out tariff rates ranging from 25 to 40 per cent by August 1. Imports from China already face average tariff rates of 42 per cent, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, and that will rise even higher unless Washington and Beijing reach a deal by the middle of next month.
There is a significant chance of higher prices in the second half of 2025, especially with this approach of pushing tariffs back towards Liberation Day levels
James Knightley, economist
“I would say there is a significant chance of higher prices in the second half, especially with this broad-based approach of pushing tariffs back towards the initial Liberation Day announcement levels,” said James Knightley, chief international economist for ING Financial Markets in New York.
American businesses are racing to stockpile goods ahead of the tariff deadlines, with import cargo at major US container ports expected to “surge” through the summer, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
But small US firms “are already getting hammered” by the trade war, said Douglas Barry, a Washington-based consultant who focuses on US-China trade. The costs of higher tariffs on Chinese imports would “ripple through the domestic economy, with demand falling for truck drivers … store clerks and more”, he added.
In Alameda, the tariffs are just the latest source of frustration for consumers and business owners worn down by years of high inflation. Shoppers said they had already seen prices rise for a slew of goods this year, from home appliances to dog food and takeaway coffee.
“Airline tickets seem to have gone up,” said Ann Wettrich, 78, an artist who shops in Alameda. She recently scrapped plans to fly across the country to visit her daughter after hearing the fare was US$1,200 per ticket, she said. “It was pretty expensive unless you go with the low, low, low, and that’s still expensive.”
Wettrich said her daughter was worried about tariff rises, as she ran a business selling seasoned nuts with ingredients from Southeast Asia. On July 7, Trump announced double-digit tariff rates on imports from Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand.
“She has a very narrow profit margin as it is,” Wettrich said. “It’s a bad time for the economy.”

Tariffs are not the only factor driving up prices, with growing demand and labour crunches in some industries contributing to some of the price rises consumers have noticed in recent months, economists said. For example, higher jet fuel costs have raised airfares.
Chris Pham, 55, an Alameda resident of 10 years, said he had seen prices rise steadily over the past four years, possibly due to post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and increased demand.
He recently paid an unexpectedly high price for an electric fan and said he expected more jumps like that to come. But so far he had not felt the trade war was stoking inflation, he said.
“I don’t think we’ve seen tariffs take effect yet, but maybe in the next few months,” Pham said while finishing a coffee at an outdoor shop.
The US consumer price index rose 0.1 per cent month on month in May, lower than the 0.2 per cent increase economists forecast in a poll by Dow Jones.
Christopher Nguyen, an 18-year-old college student from the San Francisco suburb of San Leandro, said he did not shop much himself but that his friends were paying higher prices for e-commerce purchases, with longer delivery times, compared with a year ago.
Chinese e-commerce firms including Shein and Temu have faced a steep rise in duties on parcels since Trump removed the so-called “de minimis exemption” for low-value cross-border deliveries in April.
In the coming months, Nguyen said, “I expect prices to go up a little bit … and by a little bit, I don’t really mean a little.”


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Many Americans are already worn down by years of rising prices – and a looming wave of tariff hikes is set to make things worse


Many Americans are already worn down by years of rising prices – and a looming wave of tariff hikes is set to make things worse.


US consumers on edge ahead of Trump’s tariff deadline: ‘it’s a bad time’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Many Americans are already worn down by years of rising prices – and a looming wave of tariff hikes is set to make things worse

Many Americans are already worn down by years of rising prices – and a looming wave of tariff hikes is set to make things worse