China posts record trade surplus as export wave finds shores outside US

China reports an enormous trade surplus in 2024, and a highest-ever share for countries in the Belt and Road Initiative

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China’s trade surplus grew to an unprecedented level in 2024, buoyed by a rapid expansion of exports. Photo: AFP

Mia Nulimaimaitiin LondonandAlice Liin Hong Kong

Published: 10:25am, 13 Jan 2025Updated: 9:22am, 14 Jan 2025

Buttressed by a massive spike in exports, all-time highs in car and computer chip shipments and its largest-ever share of trade with countries in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s record-breaking trade surplus in 2024 underscored the resilience of its supply chain – though higher tariffs on the horizon will make similar levels of trade growth a challenge in 2025.

The unprecedented surplus and vigorous export activity – which could lead to more criticism of overcapacity from its trading partners – were a significant driver of China’s economy last year as domestic growth and consumption remained sluggish, analysts said. A pronounced surge of outbound shipments observed in recent months also indicated a tendency for purchasers to front-load in anticipation of sudden geopolitical shifts.

In 2024, exports grew 5.9 per cent year on year to US$3.58 trillion, according to customs data released on Monday, one week before United States president-elect Donald Trump takes office. Imports for the same period – with a year-on-year rise of 1.1 per cent to US$2.59 trillion – were not enough to narrow the gap, leading to a trade surplus of US$992.2 billion.

Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered, said China’s economy is still heavily reliant on external demand.

“Currently, the uncertainty surrounding the extent of tariffs Trump may impose complicates predictions about the strength of China’s policies supporting domestic demand,” he said, adding those decisions will depend on whether domestic consumption can compensate for an expected decline in exports.

In December alone, exports grew by 10.7 per cent, higher than the 7.6 per cent increase projected by Chinese financial data provider Wind and beating the 6.7 per cent growth recorded in November. The surge was mainly led by shipments to the US and Southeast Asia.