appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Robert Delaney

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now!
Ahead of the US election, the world was bracing itself for a long, uncertain period during which America might descend into violence as a power struggle between two candidates and their political parties played out.
A landslide, the pollsters said, was possible, and with many polls putting Vice-President Harris slightly ahead – averages compiled by The New York Times put her at 49 per cent compared with Trump’s 48 per cent on the eve of Election Day – it appeared that Trump would be more likely to get buried in that scenario. But Trump pulled off a decisive victory against Harris, proving again that polls can be flawed.
World leaders reacted quickly, some even as election night results were still pouring in. President Xi Jinping sent Trump a congratulatory message soon after Harris conceded defeat.
Compare that with US President Joe Biden’s win against Trump in 2020, when Xi waited 17 days after that contest was called to send a similar message. The key difference, of course, was that Trump refused to concede that election, and has never deviated from false assertions that the contest was stolen.
Seeking to gain favour with Trump and his key advisers, Canada’s deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, highlighted her country’s tougher approach to Chinese exports, telling reporters in Ottawa that the Canadian government shares the same concerns as Trump’s team with China’s “intentional policy of overcapacity”.
But the diplomatic bonhomie masks the tensions and confrontations that are likely to follow Trump’s inauguration in January.


Many currencies slumped as Trump’s victory became clear, reflecting a general investor uncertainty that has led to a stronger US dollar.
China’s offshore yuan, for example, had at one stage dropped below the 7.19 mark, before regaining some ground.
But Beijing is better prepared for the president-elect, having spent the better part of two US presidential administrations in the midst of a tariff war Trump kicked off in 2018. The resultant lists of sanctions against government officials, companies and other entities continued to grow under Biden.
Closer to Washington, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office last month, said “there’s no reason to worry” about a second Trump administration, which will review the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) with its northern neighbours beginning next year.
That assessment appears at odds with remarks that Trump made in a Fox News interview last month.
“There are always things that you can do better. I got a clause that gives me the right to renegotiate [the USMCA],” he said. “Who else would think of that except a business person?”
In case anyone wasn’t sure of Trump’s likely stance, the former president added in the interview that Washington was being “screwed by Mexico and by China and by Canada and by the European Union”.
Which brings us to Brussels, which has already been told what Trump would expect in return for providing continued aid to Ukraine and to avoid punishing tariffs: EU backing for his tough agenda on China, a demand made clear during preliminary talks with Republican interlocutors ahead of the election, according to people familiar with the talks.


These demands will only add pressure on the EU, which is already in a bruising stand-off with Beijing, its other major trading partner, over electric vehicle subsidies.
Looking at Trump’s victory more broadly, his vision could mark an end to many of the policies central to Washington since 1945 – from the close US ties to Europe that began with the Marshall Plan, to the extensive work that Biden undertook to bolster and expand America’s alliances and partnerships.
We should stay tuned for anything the once and future president says about Aukus, the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral partnership, another trilateral partnership with Tokyo and Manila, and other Biden-initiated frameworks.
To understand how much tension Trump will ratchet up with China, and the degree to which he has little choice, we can look at the way discourse about the country plays out in domestic politics.
Case in point: the narrow victory of Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin, whose bid for a Senate seat turned, to a large extent, on who has proven to be a more formidable China hawk.
China is top of mind for many Michiganders because of a long-running dispute over a US$2.4 billion project by China-based battery manufacturer Gotion High-Tech.
In the latest threat to the project, the company revised in a US government filing details of its connections to the Chinese government, altering previous statements to disclose that it was “partially subsidised through government funding provided by the People’s Republic of China”.


Gotion is a publicly traded multinational company, with Germany’s Volkswagen becoming its majority shareholder in 2020, but to local officials trying to kill the project, it is an entirely Chinese threat.
That viewpoint is also reflected on Capitol Hill. In September, two Republican bills that would revive the US Justice Department’s “China Initiative” and increase scrutiny of Chinese property purchases passed the House of Representatives, as Biden’s White House expressed opposition to both.
The bills, as well as a third concerning the World Health Organization, were passed as part of “China Week”, a House Republican-led effort to advance China-related legislation. About two dozen bills targeting Beijing’s economic, political and technological influence had already been passed.
As for Trump, his public affection for Xi has pundits wondering how hard the line he takes with Beijing will be. He often wields tariffs as foreign policy tool in rhetoric and action, and that affinity dates back to the 1980s.
And while Trump has publicly distanced himself from “Project 2025” – the controversial blueprint for sweeping changes to the US government – by saying in July that “some of the things they’re saying [in Project 2025] are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal”, he has never said what he objects to.
The nearly 900-page tome includes a high priority item titled “How we can take on China”, which strikes a hostile, hawkish tone towards Beijing.
60-Second Catch-up
Trump’s comeback no surprise for China – and this time Beijing is prepared.
Joe Biden says transfer of power to Donald Trump will be ‘peaceful and orderly’.
Video: Global reaction to Trump’s win in the US presidential election.
Xi’s message to Trump sets tone for geopolitical rematch between powerful leaders.
In victory message to Trump, Xi hopes China, US can find a way to get along.
Opinion: Trump 2.0 will usher in a post-American world order.
Amid China-US trade ‘conflicts’, Beijing calls for burying the hatchet.
China, US officials set to discuss climate change amid fears over Donald Trump’s policies.
Video: Donald Trump secures enough Electoral College votes to win 2024 US presidential election.
US inflation ‘inevitable’ under new China trade war despite Trump’s vow to tame prices.
Opinion: Extreme anti-China measures under Trump would widen US democratic deficit.
Deep Dives

Is this the start of a free fall in China-US ties – and is there time to stop it?

The next US president could usher in a period of trade turbulence but there could be ways out for the two countries, analysts say

China’s relationship with the United States could be thoroughly tested over trade in the second Trump presidency but the world’s two largest economies can still prevent a free fall in ties, diplomatic observers say.
Even before Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris this week, there had been much speculation about how Trump would engage China if he returned to office.
Read more.

If Trump is hostile toward China, Beijing has many ways to respond: US analyst

Especially during transition from Joe Biden, tensions could rise about Taiwan and South China Sea, a former State Department official says

If Donald Trump adopts a “hostile” approach toward Beijing in his second term as US president, China has many tools in its toolbox to respond, a former top US official on China policy said this week.
Rick Waters, who until last year served in Joe Biden’s administration as US deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan, said on Wednesday that Beijing is trying to determine how Trump will deal with China in his second term.
Read more.

Will it be a case of when, not if, Trump closes Hong Kong trade offices in US?

Bill allowing president to close city’s trade missions has passed House and could become tool for Trump to negotiate with China, experts say

All expectations are that US President-elect Donald Trump will close Hong Kong’s three trade offices in the country as others urge the city government to come up with ways to still foster business ties with America.
In a similar vein, responding to queries from the Post about the former president’s political comeback and the implications for the offices, the Hong Kong government stressed on Thursday it attached importance to trade and business ties with both mature and emerging markets.
Read more.

Though China trade outlook cloudy, US official says agriculture a silver lining

Although Donald Trump’s re-election likely means rocky US-China trade, a US official has named agriculture as one area of cooperation

China remains an attractive market for the United States, a high-level US agricultural official said, calling the farming sector a “big success story” despite an uncertain future for the bilateral relationship after the re-election of Donald Trump.
“We think we can double our current level of [agricultural] exports to China, particularly if unjustified barriers are removed to our products,” said Jason Hafemeister, an acting deputy undersecretary of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in an interview on Thursday during an ongoing trade fair in Shanghai.
Read more.

Japan ‘bracing for what might come’ from Trump’s return to the White House

Tokyo is concerned about potential US troop withdrawals, higher defence costs, and the impact of new tariffs on Japanese businesses operating in China

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba quickly extended his congratulations to Donald Trump on Wednesday evening, shortly after it became clear the Republican Party’s nominee was victorious in the US presidential election, expressing hope the incoming administration would enhance the bilateral relationship “to new heights.”
The Japanese government is arranging a meeting between Ishiba and Trump to emphasise the importance of the trans-Pacific relationship, similar to then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Trump Tower in November 2016, where he presented Trump with a gold golf club worth US$3,755.
Read more.

What Trump 2.0 means for India’s trade with US, China-West balancing act

India may be able to dodge import tariffs, while Modi’s friendship with Trump could also be key to shaping ties, analysts note

India is expected to bear less of the brunt of looming import tariffs under a second Trump presidency in the United States because of its regional strategic significance to Washington, but New Delhi’s diplomatic balancing act with the West and other powers such as China may be sorely tested.
Trump, who initiated a trade war with China in his first term, has vowed to impose a 10 per cent tariff on imports from all countries, and 60 per cent duties on imports from China, with the results likely to ripple across global supply chains. He has also previously raised concerns about India’s high import tax.
Read more.

What does Trump’s election win mean for the price of gold?

Price falls as investors take profits from earlier gains, but longer-term prospects are bullish due to trade and inflation uncertainties

Demand for gold will continue to rise following Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s US presidential election, which will increase trade tensions and uncertainties for the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets, analysts said, predicting that gold prices will hit fresh highs despite a recent fall.
According to GF Securities, so-called “Trump deals” since the start of October took many expectations into account, leading to a strong US dollar, rising gold prices, falling oil prices, falling copper prices, and volatile US stocks, and the market was likely to trade in the opposite direction in the short term.
Read more.

China’s yuan falls sharply as Donald Trump declares US election win

Exchange rate between US dollar and yuan could become a bargaining chip in negotiations between China and the US on tariffs, analyst says

China’s yuan recorded a sharp fall amid rising uncertainty as Republican candidate Donald Trump declared victory in the US presidential election.
Read more.

Trump set to sustain US-Philippines ties to counter China’s clout: analysts

China will be Donald Trump’s key priority, and the Philippines can expect security commitments from Washington to continue, analysts say

Former US president Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape the Philippines’ defence strategy, with experts debating whether his robust approach would strengthen Manila’s security ties with Washington or push it into a risky stand-off with Beijing in the contested South China Sea.
Alan Chong, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, predicted that Trump would potentially play “hardball with China” and prioritise the US economy after his return.
Read more.

Trump’s victory raises fears of Israel-Iran clash before he can ‘stop wars’

Analysts warn both sides are likely to ‘take even more risks’ in the dying days of the Biden administration

With the Middle East teetering on the brink, the re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency has raised fears of a renewed clash between Israel and Iran in the 10-week period leading up to his inauguration – despite him promising in his victory speech to “stop wars”.
Analysts warn that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emboldened by the electoral success of his staunch ally Trump, may be tempted to act decisively against Tehran during the dying days of the Biden administration.
Read more.
Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.
Sign up now!


Meet Jonathan Steinberg, ex-Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo’s multimillionaire husband

Chinese national charged with voter fraud during 2024 US presidential election

Trump approval rating falls to 33%, lowest of his presidency, poll finds

Joe Biden’s prostate cancer is spreading and causing him pain, son Hunter says

US presidential election 2024

As the dust settles on Trump’s win, what’s in store for US-China relations?

A supporter of the Republican Party attends an election watch party in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Photo: Xinhua

US Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump speaks during his election night party flanked by family and friends at the Palm Beach County Convention Centre in West Palm Beach. Photo: dpa

Photo: AP

Photo: Reuters

Photo: Dickson Lee

Photo: Shutterstock

Photo: AFP

 Photo: Shutterstock

Photo: West Asia News Agency via Reuters

US presidential elections looms, with impact to be felt across Asia

US Vice-President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are seen on a screen as they participate in a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Photo: TNS

Early voters fill out their ballots at the Susan B. Anthony Museum & House in Rochester. Photo: AP

Illustration: Henry Wong

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

US-China tech takes a turn as TSMC chips found in Huawei’s AI processors

An employee produces semiconductor chips at a microelectronics enterprise in Hai’an, Jiangsu province. Photo: VCG via Getty Images

A worker producing semiconductor chips at a workshop in Suqian, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. Photo: AFP

Photo: Shutterstock Images

China’s economy saw its slowest growth in more than a year. Can it still hit its target?

China Railway workers assemble a pipe jacking machine at the construction site of an underground railway station, in Huzhou, Zhejiang province. Photo: Reuters

A woman wearing a face mask shops in a clothing store in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE

Illustration: Brian Wang

Photo: Xinhua

Photo: Weibo

Photo: China News Service via Getty Images

From milk tea to noodles, the history and influence of Chinese food culture

A girl poses with Milk Tea Flavours installation at HKIA Arts & Culture Festival in Hong Kong Airport. Photo: Edmond So

Hong Kong-style milk tea is served with popular Hong Kong fare at the HOKO Cafe, a pop-up cafe in the trendy London neighborhood of Shoreditch. Photo: AP

Photo: Xiaomei Chen

Photo: Hector Amezcua

Photo: Bloomsbury Publishing

Photo: Jennifer Wong

Photo: Kong Tea

Photo: Jonathan Wong

Photo: Alexander Brunacci

Photo: Rice Service

China, Philippines continue to clash in South China Sea, with new flashpoint emerging

A China Coast Guard ship is seen from the Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Cabra during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea. Photo: TNS

Philippine Coast Guard personnel wave flags as the Vietnam Coast Guard CSB-8002 patrol ship makes a port call at the Port of Manila. Photo: EPA-EFE

Illustration: Victor Sanjinez Garcia

Photo: Handout

Photo: Australian Department of Defence/AFP

Photo: TNS

Economy

Global Economy

China Economy

News

World

US Elections

United States & Canada

China

Diplomacy

Politics

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the reaction to the US election result and what to expect from the president-elect


In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the reaction to the US election result and what to expect from the president-elect.


Global Impact

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the reaction to the US election result and what to expect from the president-elect

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the reaction to the US election result and what to expect from the president-elect