‘Final hurrah’: China’s exports up 12.4% in March amid pre-tariff rush

Trade figures reflect resilience of export machine and rapid reorientation of shipments as uncertainty swirls over eventual scope and impact of tariffs

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China’s exports remained resilient in March despite new tariffs from US President Donald Trump. Photo: Xinhua

Mia Nulimaimaitiin LondonandLuna Sunin Beijing

Published: 11:06am, 14 Apr 2025Updated: 4:48pm, 14 Apr 2025

China’s massive export machine could be looking at its “final hurrah” in March, analysts said, as shipments surged in advance of tariff increases from the United States as well as countermeasures Beijing pledged to “strictly enforce”.

Outbound merchandise shipments rose by 12.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$313.9 billion, compared to the 2.3 per cent growth recorded for January and February and the 3.53 per cent rise forecast in a poll from financial data provider Wind.

“But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, adding “it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”

Imports sank by 4.3 per cent year-on-year in March after a 8.4 per cent slide in the first two months of the year, according to customs data released on Monday, leading to a trade surplus of US$102.64 billion for March.

Global trade is likely to face stormier seas in the coming months, as drastic tariff increases from US President Donald Trump – and rollbacks or reversals that come nearly as quickly – effectively paralyse activity as buyers and sellers try to make sense of the changes and hold back on orders until the situation reaches some degree of predictability.

Nowhere is the landscape more blurry than China, with Trump having threatened new cumulative tariffs of 145 per cent on all Chinese goods over several escalatory rounds. This would have sent the effective tariff rate, factoring in those already in place, close to an eye-watering 156 per cent.