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Andrew Mullen

1. Exports decline just a blip
China’s export growth slowed in November, missing expectations and growing by 6.7 per cent year on year to US$312.31 billion.
Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, estimated that growth in export volumes also slowed sharply, and after accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, he estimated that export volumes also softened.
“Export growth slowed sharply last month, but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom,” Huang said.
“We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in export competitiveness and exporters front-running tariffs.”


Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the moderation of export growth was likely due to softened external demand from some trading partners, including Latin America and the European Union.
They said that by major category and in sequential terms in November, the export value of metals fell the most - driven by lower steel and iron exports - followed by automobiles and home appliances.
Analysts at Barclays, though, said the 6.7 per cent growth in November “was still quite robust” compared with the year-to-date growth of 5.4 per cent.
2. Fiscal spending set to lift imports
China’s imports fell by 3.9 per cent from a year earlier in November, compared to a 2.3 per cent decrease in October.
After accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, Huang at Capital Economics said that import volumes also declined month-on-month.
The recent domestic demand recovery is still too shallow and too weak
Barclays
“Import volumes declined last month, but they are likely to recover in the short-run as accelerated fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities,” added Huang at Capital Economics.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the decline in imports was widespread across countries, which was consistent with the fewer working days this November compared to the same month last year.
“We think the second consecutive month of decline in imports, along with the weaker-than-expected consumer price index print, suggest the recent domestic demand recovery is still too shallow and too weak,” said analysts at Barclays.
3. Trade surplus expands
China’s trade surplus stood at US$97.44 billion in November, compared with US$95.72 billion in October.
4. US, EU, Asean shipments increase
China’s exports to the United States increased by 8 per cent, while shipments to the European Union rose by 7.24 per cent.
Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose by 14.9 per cent in November compared with a year earlier, while exports to Russia decreased by 2.54 per cent.
“The breakdown data showed the growth in shipments to the US and Asean outperformed the headline increase,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs.


5. Exports, imports to rebound after dip in November
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said November’s trade data showed a similar message as earlier months, as exports continued to grow while imports remained soft due to weak domestic demand.
But he pointed to Monday’s Politburo meeting, where a “more active” set of policies was pledged to expand domestic demand in 2025.
“The market is anxiously waiting for details on what exactly the government will do. Hopefully the central economic work conference will shed more light, particularly on the fiscal policy front,” he added.
Robust fiscal expenditure, much of it likely directed toward investment, should boost demand for industrial commodities in the coming quarters
Zichun Huang, Capital Economics
Huang at Capital Economics said he expects China’s exports to “probably” rebound before long.
“And although US tariffs could reduce export volumes by around 3 per cent, they may not be felt until the middle of next year. In the short run, they may even spur exports as US firms ramp up orders in anticipation of tariffs,” he added.
Huang also said imports should recover, with recent signs including the Politburo readout suggesting that the fiscal deficit would be expanded next year.
“Robust fiscal expenditure, much of it likely directed toward investment, should boost demand for industrial commodities in the coming quarters,” he said.
And analysts at Barclays expect China’s exports to remain resilient, at least through the first quarter of 2025, as exporters front-load shipments.
“However, we are concerned about subsequent payback as tariff hikes materialise. We think the deeper contraction in imports suggests the recent domestic demand recovery is still too shallow,” they said.


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China’s exports grew by 6.7 per cent year on year in November, but the reading marked a slowdown from October rebound


China’s exports grew by 6.7 per cent year on year in November, but the reading marked a slowdown from October rebound.


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China's economic recovery

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Explainer | China’s export boom not bust despite November deceleration: 5 takeaways

China’s exports grew by 6.7 per cent year on year in November, but the reading marked a slowdown from October rebound

1. Exports decline just a blip