ExplainerChina’s export boom not bust despite November deceleration: 5 takeaways
China’s exports grew by 6.7 per cent year on year in November, but the reading marked a slowdown from October rebound
1. Exports decline just a blip
Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, estimated that growth in export volumes also slowed sharply, and after accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, he estimated that export volumes also softened.
“Export growth slowed sharply last month, but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom,” Huang said.
“We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in export competitiveness and exporters front-running tariffs.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the moderation of export growth was likely due to softened external demand from some trading partners, including Latin America and the European Union.
They said that by major category and in sequential terms in November, the export value of metals fell the most - driven by lower steel and iron exports - followed by automobiles and home appliances.
Analysts at Barclays, though, said the 6.7 per cent growth in November “was still quite robust” compared with the year-to-date growth of 5.4 per cent.