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Andrew Mullen

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now!
China’s economic-growth figures, it could be argued, are probably the most closely watched in the world. From quarterly data to the annual GDP, markets and investors wait with bated breath in advance of headline figures from Beijing’s statistical boffins.
And in the third quarter of this year, anticipation over how the world’s second-largest economy had performed was even more feverish after a round of stimulus measures was unveiled, sending markets into a frenzy.
The boffins, after much speculation, eventually confirmed on Friday that China’s GDP had grown by 4.6 per cent in the third quarter. The headline figure was largely in line with expectations but below the 4.7 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter.
Consensus from analysts was that the third-quarter figure kept China in the hunt to hit its annual growth target, helped out by some positive monthly data for September.


With consumption a key driver for its economy, China’s retail sales rose in September by 3.2 per cent, year on year, compared with the 2.1 per cent growth seen in August.
China’s industrial output, meanwhile, grew by 5.4 per cent last month from a year earlier, up from the 4.5 per cent rise in August.
Overall fixed-asset investment grew by 3.4 per cent in the first nine months of the year, unchanged from the eight-month growth rate, while private investment fell 0.2 per cent during the January-September period.
However, property investment fell by 10.1 per cent, year on year, in the first nine months of 2024 after a 10.2 per cent decline in the first eight months, remaining an impediment to China’s attempts to shore up growth.
“After slowing in the second quarter, the economy regained some momentum last quarter,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
“A boost from fiscal stimulus should help narrowly meet the annual growth target this year and support activity in the coming quarters, although this won’t stop growth from slowing again by the end of next year.”


Also on Friday, People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng said China’s central bank would consider further cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks in the fourth quarter to free up liquidity and spur activity.
China had lowered the RRR – the amount of cash that commercial banks must hold in reserve – as part of the first salvo of heavyweight policies announced at the end of September.
“Governor Pan said that normalisation of inflation should become an important part of the monetary policy framework. This is an important statement,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist Pinpoint Asset Management.
“It shows the government is taking the deflationary pressure more seriously. If the Politburo makes a similar statement in their next meeting, it would reinforce the message and raise the likelihood of larger fiscal stimulus next year.”
60-Second Catch-up
China’s economy sees slowest growth in more than a year as GDP rises 4.6% in third quarter.
China retail sales hit 4-month high in September, driven by trade-ins for cars, appliances.
China’s central bank to cut reserve ratio, bolster property and capital market.
Video: China sees slowest economic growth in over a year with 4.6% GDP in third quarter.
China’s home prices see biggest drop in 9 years despite efforts to revive market.
Opinion: Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?.
China will win ‘tough battle’ to preserve property sector: housing minister.
Series: What are the challenges China faces on its road to economic recovery?.
China stimulus debate simmers on social – now you can’t follow an economist, fund manager.
Deep Dives

When will it end? How inexperience is fuelling the fire of China’s economic woes

Economists have ‘never seen anything like this’, and ‘challenges are on a greater scale’ than ever before, so how can China bring the wild ride to an end?

This is the first in a three-part series delving into the unprecedented challenges China is facing on its road to economic recovery, from inexperience in dealing with such crises to the compounding implications of internal demographic shifts and external trade hurdles.
The topsy-turvy roller-coaster ride that has seen China’s economy teetering on the rails for the past four years has left Zack Yao clinging to whatever business he can muster while struggling to determine when the wild ride will end.
Read more.

Can an ageing, shrinking China still achieve prosperity?

Growing elderly population another conundrum for Chinese policymakers grappling with high youth unemployment and ‘ultra-low’ fertility

This is the second in a three-part series delving into the unprecedented challenges China is facing on its road to economic recovery, from inexperience in dealing with such crises to the compounding implications of internal demographic shifts and external trade hurdles.
It came as a surprise to many people when China’s population fell for the first time in six decades in 2022, dropping by 850,000 from the previous year.
Read more.

Why US hi-tech chip restrictions could be barrier China ‘never breaks through’

As Washington moves to close loopholes, how will Chinese leaders secure access to the technology destined to power the future?

This is the third in a three-part series delving into the unprecedented challenges China is facing on its road to economic recovery, from inexperience in dealing with such crises to the compounding implications of internal demographic shifts and external trade hurdles.
The story of how Chinese scientists overcame technological containment efforts by the Soviet Union and the United States to develop nuclear weapons in the 1960s has long been a textbook staple in China, but analysts caution that today’s hi-tech hurdles could be harder to surmount.
Read more.

Why China ‘absolutely’ needs 10 trillion yuan in stimulus to revive economy

Go big or bear the risk of watching China’s economy fall off a cliff, says prominent head of fiscal academy associated with Ministry of Finance

China should take unconventional action to prevent a worst-case scenario in which the economy could “fall off a cliff”, as there are signs of a fundamental shift in Beijing’s understanding of debt and deficits as well as in policymakers’ mindset on macroeconomic risks and stimulus packages, according to a prominent economist with close ties to the finance ministry.
The comments by Liu Shangxi, head of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, affiliated with the Ministry of Finance, came after the central leadership’s decision to implement a slew of incremental policy support measures, and amid fervent debate and speculation about the state of the economy and Beijing’s resolve in the absence of a headline-grabbing stimulus figure like what was seen in 2008.
Read more.

Chinese economist calls for mega stimulus in excess of 2008’s 4 trillion yuan

Outspoken Chinese economist Yu Yongding says bigger is better for stimulus package – and the details should be revealed as soon as possible

To maximise the impact of any new stimulus package, Beijing should be ready to spend bigger than the 4 trillion yuan (US$564.7 billion) rolled out after the 2008 financial crisis – but the long-term consequences of that previous response, said outspoken economist Yu Yongding, should remind policymakers to think and act carefully.
For the best chance to re-energise the country’s economy in one fell swoop, the former adviser to the People’s Bank of China said in an exclusive interview, the government should quantify its stimulus plan as soon as possible – ideally with a detailed timetable.
Read more.

Why the world is watching China’s stimulus package

China relies on imports, other countries need its exports, and the nation’s economic slowdown is affecting both

China’s slowing economic growth is having impacts that extend beyond its borders, with the potential even to reverse roles in some long-standing trade relations, though the government’s stimulus measures could ease concerns, according to analysts.
While Beijing is gradually unfurling a stimulus package that began with larger-than-expected monetary easing in late September, the rest of the world is keen on gleaning the package’s monetary size and discerning how quickly China can get back its appetite for imports, from Australian iron ore to French luxuries.
Read more.

How big is Beijing’s war chest, and why does a stimulus figure remain elusive?

Some prominent economists have called for China to roll out a stimulus plan worth 10 trillion yuan, but the real number is anyone’s guess as prudence is at play

While the market keeps mulling over the size of Beijing’s economic stimulus, policymakers have already undertaken a significant reshuffle of the country’s financial and fiscal system, with plans to curb risks while cultivating long-term sustainability amid outsized uncertainties.
As the question of “how much is enough” persists among financial investors, some analysts contend that Beijing actually has “more than sufficient” ammunition to deal with potential economic challenges – more firepower than was previously believed.
Read more.
Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.
Sign up now!


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China Railway workers assemble a pipe jacking machine at the construction site of an underground railway station, in Huzhou, Zhejiang province. Photo: Reuters

A woman wearing a face mask shops in a clothing store in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE

Illustration: Brian Wang

Illustration: Henry Wong

Photo: Xinhua

Photo: Weibo

Photo: AFP

Photo: China News Service via Getty Images

From milk tea to noodles, the history and influence of Chinese food culture

A girl poses with Milk Tea Flavours installation at HKIA Arts & Culture Festival in Hong Kong Airport. Photo: Edmond So

Hong Kong-style milk tea is served with popular Hong Kong fare at the HOKO Cafe, a pop-up cafe in the trendy London neighborhood of Shoreditch. Photo: AP

Photo: Xiaomei Chen

Photo: Hector Amezcua

Photo: Bloomsbury Publishing

Photo: Jennifer Wong

Photo: Kong Tea

Photo: Jonathan Wong

Photo: Alexander Brunacci

Photo: Rice Service

China, Philippines continue to clash in South China Sea, with new flashpoint emerging

A China Coast Guard ship is seen from the Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Cabra during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea. Photo: TNS

Philippine Coast Guard personnel wave flags as the Vietnam Coast Guard CSB-8002 patrol ship makes a port call at the Port of Manila. Photo: EPA-EFE

Illustration: Victor Sanjinez Garcia

Photo: Handout

Photo: Australian Department of Defence/AFP

Photo: TNS

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Photo: Reuters

China remains a talking point as election day looms for Trump and Harris

Signs showing support for both Democratic presidential candidate Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump sit along a rural highwar near Traverse City, Michigan. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

US Vice-President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris shakes hands with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Photo: TNS

illustration by Lau Ka-kuen

Photo: AP

Photo: Bloomberg

China’s ‘time running out’ to meet economic growth target as August figures falter

Employees producing basketballs at a factory in Sihong, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province. Photo: AFP

Employees working on a jelly production line at a food factory in Suqian, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province. Photo: AFP

China’s video game achievement may be anomaly for years to come despite Black Myth: Wukong

A woman holds up an umbrella as it rains near an advertisement promoting blockbuster Chinese video game Black Myth: Wukong in Beijing. Photo: AP

A boy plays the video game Black Myth: Wukong in the Sony store in Shanghai. Photo: EPA-EFE

Photo: SCMP composite/Baidu/Weibo

Photo: Game Science

Economy

Economic Indicators

China Economy

News

China

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the state of play within the world’s second-largest economy


In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the state of play within the world’s second-largest economy.


Global Impact

China economy

China’s economic stimulus

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the state of play within the world’s second-largest economy

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the state of play within the world’s second-largest economy