China’s economy holds ‘real potential’ in 2024, think tank predicts upbeat 5.3% GDP growth

Chinese Academy of Sciences expects China’s economy to grow by 5.3 per cent this year, compared to a 4.5 per cent projection by the World Bank

Chinese think tank expects world’s second-largest economy to be driven by domestic consumption and investment this year, but dragged down slightly by exports

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The Chinese Academy of Sciences expects China’s economy to grow by 5.3 per cent this year. Photo: AP

Published: 12:00am, 11 Jan 2024Updated: 9:17am, 11 Jan 2024

China’s economy could grow by an upbeat 5.3 per cent this year, according to a top government think tank, despite lingering market concerns and increasing caution from international institutions.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) said it expected the world’s second-largest economy to stabilise this year in its annual economic outlook issued on Tuesday, even as the World Bank maintained its 4.5 per cent projection in its latest report on the same day.

The CAS, the first state think tank to make economic projections for 2024, said China’s economy would start slow, with a growth rate of 5 per cent for the first quarter, before expanding at a faster pace later in the year.

The forecasts were made as China is widely anticipated to have met its “around 5 per cent” growth goal for 2023 despite a bumpy post-Covid recovery last year.

China’s economy, though, is still being dogged by an ailing real estate market, falling global demand for its exports, poor consumer confidence and high debt levels.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year would be driven by domestic consumption and investment – by 3.7 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points, respectively – but dragged down 0.3 percentage point by exports, the CAS report said.