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Ralph Jennings

Revenue from inbound travel to China is forecast to reach US$470 billion by 2040, more than doubling its current share of the economy and helping offset weak domestic demand, according to UBS.
Tourism from outside mainland China would expand to 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on a compound annual growth rate of 8.9 per cent from 2025, the Swiss investment bank estimated.
China’s inbound travel revenue would represent 15 per cent of the world tourism market by around 2040, said Chen Xin, head of China leisure and transport research at UBS, in a special report summary on Friday.
“Amid weak domestic demand, policymakers increasingly see inbound tourism as an incremental consumption driver,” the report said.
China, aiming to stimulate its economy, has opened visa-free travel in stages since 2023 to about 50 countries including Australia, Russia, Singapore and most of Europe.
The list of visa-free countries had expanded by 188 per cent compared with pre-2023, UBS said. International flight capacity for China trips could increase by about 150 per cent from last year through 2040.
China offered “competitive travel costs”, the bank said.
UBS expected a “spending mix upgrade” among inbound arrivals, with accommodation, catering and shopping at an estimated 78 per cent of their spending by around 2040, up from 51 per cent in 2019.
Tax-refund “optimisation” and stronger domestic brands should drive more shopping among foreign tourists, alongside a growing supply of mid- to higher-end hotels and a broader calendar of international events, UBS said.
We see the clearest read-through for airports, hotels, premium malls and online travel agencies, where incremental foreign traffic can support topline growth
UBS report
“A key investor debate is whether the opportunity is large enough to move domestic consumption and travel-related earnings,” the report said.
“We see the clearest read-through for airports, hotels, premium malls and online travel agencies, where incremental foreign traffic can support topline growth and international travellers’ per-passenger spending is likely to be higher than that of domestic tourists.”
The report said China appeared “structurally well positioned to capture a larger share of global travel spending, supported by its rich tourism resources, competitive travel costs and improving accessibility”.
UBS forecast a 4.7 per cent compound annual growth rate for the number of inbound travellers by 2040, with per-capita spending growth at 4 per cent.
Domestic travel is expected to grow at 4.8 per cent annually from 2025 through 2040, it forecast.
Local consumption has come under pressure in China from a prolonged downturn in the property sector and a tough labour market.


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Economy

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Country’s inbound travel revenue forecast to double share of economy and capture 15 per cent of global holiday market, Swiss bank says


Country’s inbound travel revenue forecast to double share of economy and capture 15 per cent of global holiday market, Swiss bank says.


China’s inbound tourism revenue projected to reach US$470 billion by 2040: UBS

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Country’s inbound travel revenue forecast to double share of economy and capture 15 per cent of global holiday market, Swiss bank says

Country’s inbound travel revenue forecast to double share of economy and capture 15 per cent of global holiday market, Swiss bank says