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Emma Ma

Restart schedules for the Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province operated by CATL – the world’s largest lithium-ion-battery producer – are now facing fresh uncertainty.
Analysts said the development could fuel volatility in lithium prices in the fourth quarter since the mine – the world’s largest single‑deposit lepidolite mine according to Yichun city – represented roughly 4 to 5 per cent of global supply when operating at full capacity.
Local environmental regulator Yichun Ecology and Environment Bureau said on its website on Wednesday that it had removed the public notice signalling proposed acceptance of the environmental impact assessment report for the CATL project.
The move has cast doubt over the timeline for a return to production since the operations were suspended in August 2025 when its original mining permit expired, according to CATL.
Market participants had earlier expected the mine to resume operations in late September, following its receipt of a safety-production permit on June 29 which cleared a critical regulatory hurdle, records from government platform Credit China show.
The latest hold-up had yet to meaningfully roil domestic lithium carbonate prices but the impact may be felt during the fourth-quarter, according to analysts.
“A number of lithium mines are going through mining-license conversion procedures,” said Xiao Jiaying, an analyst with Shanghai-based Orient Futures. “Together with the Jianxiawo episode, this leaves the fourth-quarter supply outlook more uncertain and will continue to fuel price swings.”
There is broad market agreement that lithium carbonate demand remains firm
Lou Jiahao, Cinda Futures
Extracted from hard-rock ores and salt flat brines, lithium can be processed into lithium carbonate, a vital raw material deployed across downstream consumer markets such as electric vehicles and drones.
Lou Jiahao, an analyst with Hangzhou-based Cinda Futures, said in an August 9 research note that domestic lithium carbonate stockpiles had fallen to multi-year lows.
“There is broad market agreement that lithium carbonate demand remains firm,” he said. “If demand posts a 5 per cent month-on-month increase as forecast, alongside the current pace of inventory drawdown and unresolved risks surrounding the Jianxiawo lithium mining project, prices could stage a strong rebound.”
Lithium carbonate futures contracts traded on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have risen more than 30 per cent year-to-date, with prices holding above 150,000 yuan (US$22,312) per tonne.
The price rebound in lithium and its related products has delivered tailwinds for industry participants. Tianqi Lithium, the Sichuan-based global heavyweight in lithium-ion battery materials, on Thursday reported record‑high revenue and profits in the first half.
In the six months ending June, it generated over 12.2 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 153 per cent year-on-year increase. Net profit attributable to equity shareholders surged an eye‑catching 4,925 per cent to 4.2 billion yuan.
According to the firm, the soaring earnings stemmed from growth within the new-energy industry that drove demand for its flagship lithium products.


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The latest hold-up has yet to meaningfully roil lithium carbonate prices but the impact may be felt during the fourth-quarter


The latest hold-up has yet to meaningfully roil lithium carbonate prices but the impact may be felt during the fourth-quarter.


Uncertainty over CATL lithium mine restart could fuel price volatility: analysts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The latest hold-up has yet to meaningfully roil lithium carbonate prices but the impact may be felt during the fourth-quarter

The latest hold-up has yet to meaningfully roil lithium carbonate prices but the impact may be felt during the fourth-quarter