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Ralph Jennings

It’s a midsummer day and the sun is high in the sky, but the cavernous bar on the green, hilly 68-acre Rios-Lovell Winery & Event Venue stands empty.
Although Rios-Lovell and around 50 neighbouring wineries in the San Francisco suburb of Livermore typically do not expect many clients on weekdays, they also know that Generation Z and Millennials are not drinking as much as their elders.
However, the 35-year-old Rios-Lovell winery ships a couple of containers per year to China, said event manager Joe Feng.
It may be sampling the future.
After a sharp decline in US wine exports to China under US President Donald Trump, the worst should now be over with a sparkle of hope on the way, said Christopher Beros, the California Wine Institute trade association’s director for Greater China and Southeast Asia.
“There is anecdotal evidence that this decline has bottomed out and there is hope that exports will resume in the months and years ahead,” he said.
Around Livermore, a wine-growing region of California well-known for about 140 years, the consensus is that since the Covid-19 pandemic American youths have been avoiding drinking wine to save money. Many wineries are now banking on events such as weddings to stay in business.
Yet between 2022 and 2024, exports of US wine to mainland China increased from US$33.5 million to US$95.8 million, the Wine Institute found.
Most of those shipments came from California, which generates $73 billion in local economic activity every year. Over that period, China became the third-largest export market for California wine after Canada and the UK.
Then in 2025, US wine exports to China dropped 73 per cent year on year to US$26.3 million and lost another 35 per cent this year through May. The fall could largely be attributed to China-US trade issues including tariffs, Beros said.
“Uncertainty about the future of the trade relationship between the countries has paralysed [Chinese] importers and caused them to hesitate to order new wine.”

“Having said that, President Trump’s trip to China this past May and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping’s scheduled trip to Washington DC this coming September give us hope that the trade relationship can stabilise and improve,” he said.
“It does appear that there is a will on the part of both countries to establish a permanent and realistic trade dynamic, which should benefit the resumption of robust exports of California wine to China in the future.”
Following China-US trade talks late last year, Chinese tariff rates on US wine imports stood at a nominal 64 per cent, but traders could pay 39 per cent if they applied to the US government for an exclusion, Beros said. Rates topped out at 200 per cent at the height of the US-China trade war in 2025.
When tariffs and other taxes were combined, US wines faced a total rate of about 74.5 per cent with the exclusion, he said. European, Argentinian and South African wines paid closer to 45 per cent.
A “fresher and more fruit-driven style” compared with other regions made California wines popular in China, Beros said, adding that a zinfandel from the state had been the top-selling wine unit at Sam’s Club stores in China in recent years. At the US wholesale retailer owned by Walmart, California varietals compete with Australian, French and Spanish labels.
In the meantime, the seeds for a China future are being sown in the minds of winery operators.
Those not exporting now still have the capacity to do so, said Sherri Souza, CEO and president of the 430-member Livermore Valley Chamber of Commerce.
“Some of them who are able to penetrate the national market, they’re still able to shift and sell products internationally,” Souza said.
Concannon Estate and Winery in Livermore bottles 20,000 to 30,000 cases per year, at 12 bottles per case. After 143 years in operation, it has begun chasing younger customers by hosting events such as wine clubs and comedy nights. It’s also looking to expand its retail options beyond its 230-acre compound – and possibly offshore some day.
“We should be getting into the China market because Concannon is big enough,” said company marketing director Harrison Miller.
But Beros cautioned of a “weaker overall wine market” in China, while Feng of Rios-Lovell said consumers might still recoil at the prices per bottle. “Shipping wine to China is tariffed and it’s just too much,” he said.


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Despite trade tensions and tariffs, California wineries are hopeful that US wine exports to China will recover as trade relations stabilise


Despite trade tensions and tariffs, California wineries are hopeful that US wine exports to China will recover as trade relations stabilise.


Grape expectations: California winemakers optimistic for China export resurgence

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite trade tensions and tariffs, California wineries are hopeful that US wine exports to China will recover as trade relations stabilise

Despite trade tensions and tariffs, California wineries are hopeful that US wine exports to China will recover as trade relations stabilise