appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Mia Nurmamat

A strong El Nino expected later this year, together with the fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran, may threaten China’s agricultural security as the country’s traditional small-scale farming system lacks sufficient capacity to cope with extreme weather shocks, analysts have warned.
The climate phenomenon also risked disrupting China’s supply of critical commodities, such as copper – essential for renewable energy systems – potentially forcing the energy-intensive economy to lean more heavily on coal, they said.
El Nino is a climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise abnormally, altering atmospheric circulation. It occurs about every two to seven years, and is typically associated with higher global temperatures and weather disruptions across the Pacific Rim.
In China – home to 1.4 billion people, where food security has long been a top policy priority – it tends to increase the risk of flooding in the south and drought in the north. The National Climate Centre has forecast that a moderate to moderately strong El Nino will develop this month and continue through the rest of the year.
“China’s overall capacity to respond remains limited at this stage,” said Liu Bingxin, an agricultural analyst at Huishang Futures.
“Compared with highly scaled and mechanised farming systems in countries such as the United States, China’s agriculture is more fragmented and relatively less resilient to natural disasters.”
She said the impact on Chinese agriculture was expected to fall mainly on spring-sown crops such as rice, corn and soybeans.
Public concern over a possible “super El Nino” has grown in China amid online claims it could be the strongest in 140 years, prompting meteorological authorities to stress that forecasts still point to a moderate-to-strong event and to caution against exaggerating the threat.
Beijing’s policy support has helped shield domestic prices from external shocks
Liu Bingxin, Huishang Futures
Such fears come as China’s agriculture and energy systems are already under strain from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which has driven up oil and gas prices and disrupted fertiliser supply chains, adding to the uncertainty facing policymakers.
Still, Liu noted that El Nino’s overall impact on China had been smaller than the global average since 2000.
“Wheat tends to be more affected, mainly through reduced yields rather than price volatility, as Beijing’s policy support has helped shield domestic prices from external shocks,” Liu said.
The world last experienced a strong El Nino in the 2023-2024 season, which pushed average global temperatures to record highs and contributed to lower crop output in parts of China. Heavy rains in Henan province, a major wheat-producing region, led to widespread losses.
Extreme weather in previous years placed strains on China’s power system, which remains dependent on coal.
Citic Securities forecast in a report issued late last month that this year’s expected heat levels could drive up electricity demand and thermal power generation, increasing coal consumption.
It estimated that a 1-percentage-point increase in thermal power growth could push coal consumption growth up by about 0.58 percentage points, equivalent to an additional 7.51 million tonnes (8.28 million short tons) of coal.
“With the likelihood of El Nino increasing, more extreme summer heat could support demand for thermal coal in China and potentially in India, lifting global price expectations,” the report’s authors said, adding that energy supply would take time to recover even if the Iran war ended.
El Nino could also hurt China’s copper supply by disrupting production in major mining regions such as South America, Southeast Asia and Australia through droughts and floods, Citic Futures said last month. That would pose a challenge as the country’s limited domestic resources were unable to meet robust demand from power grids and the construction and manufacturing sectors, it said.


Geologists find unexpectedly large water sources in Xinjiang beneath China’s largest desert

Why China’s sugar stockpiles may blunt an El Nino-fuelled global supply crunch

China has 1.4 billion mouths to feed. How vulnerable is it to a global food crisis?

Amid food security concerns, China passes first law on farmland protection and improvement

China food security

Fallow farms, more coal burning and copper shortages – how this El Nino could affect China

Farmers in Hebi, Henan province, water newly sown corn in June 2024 after an El Nino event that lasted around a year. Photo: Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Women use an umbrella to shelter from the sun in Shanghai in May 2023, a month before an El Nino event began to send temperatures soaring even higher. Photo: AFP

China targets greener AI data centres, heavy industry in push to meet 2030 climate goals

Chinese authorities are pushing for greener digital infrastructure, including data centre and communication network upgrades. Photo: Shutterstock

Asia braces for food shortages as ‘super El Nino’, Iran war effects collide

Women sit and eat rice noodles on the sidewalk in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 14. Photo: AFP

A farmer sprays pesticide over a field of vegetables on the outskirts of Lahore, Pakistan, on Sunday. Photo: AFP

People buy food at a market in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 8. Higher fertiliser and energy prices are hitting food production costs. Photo: EPA

US dollar banknotes. Higher US-dollar-denominated crude prices have increased demand for American currency. Photo: dpa

A palm oil plantation is seen in February next to a forest in Indonesia’s Central Kalimantan province. Photo: AFP

China warns strong El Nino this year may worsen global fossil fuel crisis

A strong El Nino can increase the risk of floods and other extreme weather events. Photo: AFP

China’s new energy strategy aims to shield economy from shocks – and meet climate targets

A worker produces solar modules at a solar energy technology company in Huaian, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province, on December 17, 2025. Photo: AFP

El Nino could cost Hong Kong US$300 billion and shorten life expectancy: study

A study has found that Hongkongers born during the two strong El Nino events in 1982-83 and 1997-98 could have their life expectancy reduced by five to seven months. Photo: Jelly Tse

Researchers estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years for the 1982-83 El Nino and 0.4 years for the 1997-98 event. Photo: Jelly Tse

Economy

China Economy

They warn that country’s fragmented farms are less resilient to natural disasters than bigger, more mechanised operations


They warn that country’s fragmented farms are less resilient to natural disasters than bigger, more mechanised operations.


Fallow farms, more coal burning and copper shortages – how this El Nino could affect China

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}They warn that country’s fragmented farms are less resilient to natural disasters than bigger, more mechanised operations

They warn that country’s fragmented farms are less resilient to natural disasters than bigger, more mechanised operations