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Open QuestionsWhy Kenneth Rogoff thinks China’s yuan will be a reserve currency ‘in the next 5 years’

Harvard economist explains why cryptocurrencies will never take the US dollar’s place, despite their popularity in underground economies

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Illustration: Henry Wong
Kandy Wong

Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University has repeatedly warned that the US dollar is approaching a crisis of legitimacy. Having written extensively on the global recession in the late 2000s, Rogoff has turned his focus to the US currency’s increasingly unstable place at the top of the world’s financial hierarchy. A former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a chess grandmaster, he published Our Dollar, Your Problem in May last year.

In this interview, Rogoff elaborates further on the US dollar’s competition from the yuan and euro, the race among global policymakers to reduce their dependency on the US currency, and how the rise of cryptocurrencies factors into future developments.

This interview also appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.
You have argued that the US dollar’s dominance is declining due to the rise of China, geopolitical tensions and the growing influence of cryptocurrencies. President Xi Jinping has called for making the yuan a global reserve currency. What is your take on this? How long would it take for the yuan to become a vital global reserve currency?
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