Steep drop in Chinese tourists could cost Japan US$9.59 billion a year: economist

Beijing has urged Chinese citizens to refrain from travelling to Japan following comments about Taiwan by new Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi

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A Chinese tour group visits the Sensoji temple in Tokyo’s Asakusa district on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

Published: 2:17pm, 19 Nov 2025Updated: 2:36pm, 19 Nov 2025

The Japanese economy could lose about 1.49 trillion yen (US$9.59 billion) over the next year if travellers from mainland China continue to avoid Japan over a row that has derailed the growth in arrivals seen earlier this year, an economist at the Tokyo-based Nomura Research Institute has projected.

Takahide Kiuchi, the institute’s executive economist, made the calculation after Beijing told Chinese citizens last week to refrain from travelling to Japan following comments about Taiwan by new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Kiuchi’s figure was based on an estimated 25 per cent decline in the number of mainland Chinese visitors over the next 12 months, in line with the decline seen in 2012 when Beijing issued a similar call following the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the disputed Diaoyu Islands – known as the Senkakus in Japan – in the East China Sea.

Kiuchi also estimated a loss of 290 billion yen over the next year due to a reduction in the number of travellers arriving from Hong Kong.

“This would result in a significant economic impact,” he said in a research note issued on Tuesday.

China-Japan tensions escalated this month after Takaichi suggested that Tokyo could deploy its military forces in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

The diplomatic row appears to have already had a ripple effect on tourism, as Chinese airlines recorded about 491,000 cancellations of tickets to Japan from Saturday to Monday, according to a veteran aviation analyst.

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