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Ji Siqi

As US President Donald Trump reiterates his desire to acquire Greenland – part of a broader push to assert influence in the Arctic – Chinese scholars are debating whether the world’s second-largest economy should become more involved in the region, particularly by developing shipping routes.
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) – the shortest passage between the Asia-Pacific region and western Eurasia – has drawn growing attention as global warming makes its icy waters navigable for longer periods each year.
Trump, who has pledged to buy or annex Greenland, views the Arctic as vital to advancing US commercial and strategic interests – from securing natural resources to countering Chinese and Russian influence.
His ambition, outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into law on July 4, allocates nearly US$9 billion for icebreakers – a “historic investment in US Arctic security” aimed at putting “America back in charge of the frozen frontier”, according to the White House.
As Washington increases its focus on the region, China – a “Near-Arctic State” and observer of the Arctic Council – must seize new shipping opportunities, according to Zhang Cheng and Su Anqi, scholars at Wuhan University.
“Arctic shipping routes offer advantages in terms of cost and efficiency over traditional routes, making them a potential new pathway to counter US geopolitical containment,” they wrote in the June issue of China Review.
“By enhancing its hard power [in shipping] and reshaping soft rules, China can effectively respond to geopolitical competition in the Arctic,” they said.
Should China join the race in making use of the Arctic as a shipping route? It all depends on a cost-benefit analysis on the part of the shipping industry.
Zha Daojiong, School of International Studies at Peking University
But not all Chinese scholars are convinced. Many question the commercial viability of such routes, which would require massive investments in ports and other infrastructure in a challenging and uncertain environment.
As the world’s largest exporter, China already wields major influence in global shipping through its extensive infrastructure and strategic investments across the world.
By partnering with Russia – which controls just over half the Arctic Ocean’s coastline – Beijing could help develop a broader network linking ports, land routes and energy supply chains, the Wuhan University scholars said.
“The strategic value of Arctic shipping routes has transcended mere economic benefits, emerging as a pivotal lever for China to reshape the global trade network,” they said. Developing these routes could reduce dependence on the Malacca Strait and mitigate geopolitical risks in oil transport, they added.
Following Western sanctions after the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has turned to China for help in developing Arctic infrastructure – though progress has been slow despite positive speeches from the two countries’ leaders.
Chinese state-owned shipping company COSCO halted its Arctic voyages along the Northern Sea Route after the West imposed sanctions on Moscow in 2022. Only a few smaller, privately owned Chinese shipping firms currently use the passage.
Zha Daojiong, a professor of international political economy at the School of International Studies at Peking University, cautioned that Arctic shipping routes were still a long way from becoming commercially viable.


For safety reasons, all the passages tested so far – including by Chinese icebreaker and shipping companies – remain within or near the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) claimed or administered by coastal states, Zha said.
“Should China join the race in making use of the Arctic as a shipping route? It all depends on a cost-benefit analysis on the part of the shipping industry. But it would certainly not be in China’s interest to be at the proverbial table of the Arctic just for the sake of it,” Zha said.
Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, said Russia was once wary of Beijing’s Arctic ambitions. But since the Ukraine war, Moscow has pushed for closer cooperation as it urgently needs icebreaking, shipping infrastructure, subsea cable deployment and other critical technologies to counter pressure from Nato and the US, he added.
However, the limited economic payoff from the Northern Sea Route continues to deter many Chinese companies, especially given the rise of the China-Europe Railway Express – a quicker alternative to traditional sea routes linking the two continents.
“Ultimately, economic viability is the deciding factor – governments can steer policy, but execution depends on enterprises’ participation.”


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Trump’s Arctic strategy stirs debate over China’s polar shipping ambitions

This aerial photo taken on December 3, 2023, shows China’s icebreaker Xuelong 2 breaking ice and plowing a waterway. Photo: Xinhua

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Washington views the Arctic as a strategic priority, but Chinese analysts split on whether costly infrastructure serves Beijing’s interests


Washington views the Arctic as a strategic priority, but Chinese analysts split on whether costly infrastructure serves Beijing’s interests.


Trump’s Arctic strategy stirs debate over China’s polar shipping ambitions

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Washington views the Arctic as a strategic priority, but Chinese analysts split on whether costly infrastructure serves Beijing’s interests

Washington views the Arctic as a strategic priority, but Chinese analysts split on whether costly infrastructure serves Beijing’s interests