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He Huifeng

When fabric exporter Xie Jun registered early for the Canton Fair, he had high hopes for finding more clients – particularly those from overseas – at China’s oldest and largest trade expo.
But the seemingly endless back-and-forth between Beijing and Washington, with one tariff increase after another, has left him deflated.
Now that securing new orders has become almost impossible in the frenzy of the trade war, Xie – based in China’s eastern province of Zhejiang – said he is more interested in talking with peers from various industries to find common ground.
“I want to know if others are feeling the same level of confusion and panic,” he said.
“And I want to hear what Plan Bs others are considering.”
The three-week spring session of the Canton Fair, set to commence on Tuesday in the southern city of Guangzhou, is widely viewed as a barometer for the health of China’s foreign trade.
A record 30,000 export enterprises will take part in the spring, 900 more than the previous session last fall, according to the fair’s operator.


Of the 170,000 overseas buyers who have preregistered, 10.5 per cent are from Europe and the United States.
Xie is not alone in having worries for his business as the US government confirmed it would be applying a cumulative 145 per cent in new tariffs on Chinese goods – a move that would force him out of the world’s wealthiest consumer market.
Zhong Ming, a furniture exporter from the export-oriented southern city of Foshan, has already heard from others that US clients have begun to cancel their orders of furniture, bags, garments and everything in between.
The global chaos is almost certain to be the hottest topic of conversation among his peers at the Canton Fair, he said.
“I guess everyone is comparing to see who has lost more orders. There will be fewer American buyers coming to the fair.”
Zheng Bo, a veteran exporter who runs a sports equipment business, is starting to sweat. Of his stock, 30 per cent is bound for the United States, and about 60 per cent is intended for Europe.
Compared to last year, when his goods were charged a duty of about 7.5 per cent, the current tariff regime is beyond his capabilities.
“There are too many unknowns – it’s like I don’t know how to play this game any more,” Zheng said. “Many smart sports products will be wiped out, and we have no way to hedge.”


Neither Beijing nor Washington have made their intentions for tariff negotiations public.
Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said at a forum earlier this week that the chances of the US and China reaching an agreement are slim.
“China has little incentive to make piecemeal concessions,” he said. “Most Asian countries run large trade surpluses with the US. Even if they secure short-term tariff exemptions, in the long run, the risk of repeated tariff hikes remains high.”
Speaking at a media briefing on Thursday, a spokesman for China’s commerce ministry said the authorities will try to help exporters tap domestic markets through a variety of events and incentives.
Zheng’s factory has already begun to control order volume by switching to on-demand production.
“Right now, it’s all about waiting and watching. Too many factors are beyond our control. We hope that demand from Europe and Australia can maintain the operation of the factory.”


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China’s oldest and largest trade fair unlikely to be a bonanza as exporters prepare for lean times amid tariff-induced uncertainty


China’s oldest and largest trade fair unlikely to be a bonanza as exporters prepare for lean times amid tariff-induced uncertainty.
