Chinese tech hub Shenzhen sees exports slump over 16% as trade war fears rise

Analysts are divided over the causes of the sharp slowdown in Shenzhen, one of China’s most important trade hubs

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Shenzhen is one of China’s largest cities and a key tech and trading hub. Photo: Shutterstock

Published: 6:00pm, 19 Mar 2025

China’s southern tech hub Shenzhen recorded a sharp decline in exports during the first two months of the year, with analysts pointing to rising geopolitical tensions and a high base effect.

Exports from enterprises in Shenzhen plunged 16.6 per cent year on year to 367.3 billion yuan (US$50.8 billion) in January and February, according to municipal customs data released on Tuesday – a stark contrast with the 2.3 per cent growth in exports recorded nationwide over that period.

The slump was led by a 29.6 per cent drop in general trade, which accounts for the largest share of the city’s exports. Export processing, where raw materials are imported for manufacturing and re-export, fell 5.5 per cent, while bonded logistics rose 19.7 per cent, Shenzhen customs data showed.

The sharp slowdown in general trade is a sign that Shenzhen may already be feeling the effects of China’s intensifying trade war with the United States, economists suggested.

Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, pointed out that general trade includes factories exporting high-value-added products such as consumer electronics and machinery – two industries that are highly concentrated in Shenzhen.

“With escalating geopolitical tensions, other countries are likely to become increasingly cautious about accepting certain categories of goods from China, such as electronics, which could weigh on Shenzhen’s exports,” Chen said.

Shenzhen, often referred to as China’s Silicon Valley, is home to a string of leading tech companies including telecoms giant Huawei Technologies, electric vehicle producer BYD and drone maker DJI.