China’s top exporting regions pare back GDP targets under shadow of tariff threats

Shanghai and Guangdong, two of China’s major exporting regions, have set modest growth targets as leaders warn of ‘external factors’

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Shanghai and Guangdong, two of China’s top exporting regions, have dialed back their growth targets in advance of likely tariffs from the US. Photo: Xinhua

Mandy Zuoin ShanghaiandHe Huifengin Guangdong

Published: 5:00pm, 15 Jan 2025

China’s top exporting regions have set moderate targets for gross domestic product in 2025, naming external pressure as a reason for caution in annual work reports – a de facto expression of concern over the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by US president-elect Donald Trump.

Shanghai and Guangdong have each set their 2025 target for economic growth at “around 5 per cent”, lower than the 5.5-6 per cent range of goals announced by several central and eastern Chinese provinces earlier this week.

While trade targets for this year were omitted in the reports, both regions vowed to boost local consumption, make technological upgrades and stabilise foreign investment.

This year’s benchmark for Shanghai – China’s financial centre – was unchanged from 2024, Mayor Gong Zheng said at the opening session of the local legislature on Wednesday.

“Shanghai’s economy is highly export-oriented, and would be the first in China to be affected by external factors,” he warned. “The pressure to stabilise foreign trade and foreign investment has increased, and some enterprises are having difficulties in production and operations.”

Shanghai, host to the world’s busiest container port, also ranks fifth among the country’s provincial-level regions in terms of export value.