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What’s eating at Guangdong’s greatness? China’s economic champ is taking it on the chin

Malformed by manufacturing malaise, pummelled by property, and targeted by tariffs, the hits keep coming in the southern powerhouse region

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Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
He Huifengin Guangdong

For years, Lu Liang ran his own advertising firm in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan. But when business failed to return last year after the pandemic, he was forced to close up shop, and lately it feels like one blow after another is knocking him about.

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While the 40-something was quick to secure a job with a local materials manufacturer that needed a business-development manager, the economic downturn in the region over the last few months has taken a toll on his income as US customers forced his new employer to cut prices to offset a potential hike in US tariffs after president-elect Donald Trump takes office.

To make matters worse, Lu’s apartment has been steadily falling in value, and he sees little chance of the city’s property market bouncing back any time soon.

“The vacancy rates of office buildings and factories in most parts of Guangdong [province] are getting higher and higher,” Lu lamented. “I am very worried that Trump’s new tariff policy will exacerbate the hollowing out of industries here, which is bad for everyone living here.”

Many in Dongguan share Lu’s sense of foreboding. The city and the region that surrounds it in Guangdong were the driving force behind China’s emergence as the “world’s factory”, with its factories churning out products for the global market.

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But the province now looks acutely vulnerable, as the critically important economic hub that remains inextricably tied to foreign trade has been thrust back into the spotlight by Trump’s fresh vow to slam China’s exporters even harder than previously anticipated.
And the effects of his “America first” agenda could be felt soon after he takes office on January 20, if he follows through on threats.
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