China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast cut by UBS on Trump threat, others wait and see

Swiss investment bank UBS cuts China’s gross domestic product growth projection to ‘around 4 per cent’ for next year, others remain optimistic

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Published: 5:30pm, 11 Nov 2024

Investment bank UBS cut its forecast for China’s economic growth next year due to the threat of steep US tariffs on Chinese goods under president-elect Donald Trump, although other global financial institutions have stuck to slightly more optimistic forecasts.

The Swiss bank on Sunday said it expected China’s gross domestic product to expand by “around 4 per cent” next year, down from an estimate of 4.5 per cent it made in October.

And growth for the world’s second-largest economy is forecast to be “considerably lower” in 2026, UBS added.

“In the new baseline, we assume that the new Trump administration will impose additional tariffs on most imports from China in a staged manner starting in the second half of 2025, though uncertainties remain high on the scale and timing of tariffs and other US policies,” said UBS’ head of Asia economics Tao Wang.

The 2025 GDP projection factors in “continued weakness” in the Chinese property market, Wang added.

UBS expects the yuan to weaken against a stronger US dollar, trading between 7.3 yuan per dollar in the onshore market by the end of this year and 7.6 yuan at the end of 2025.