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Harry Pearl

Ahead of this week’s summit of global leaders to discuss ways of tackling climate change, this South China Morning Post series looks into how attitudes have changed among China’s leadership, the challenges faced by the world’s largest polluter and what we can expect from Thursday’s meeting.
When China pledged in September to reach carbon neutrality in four decades and peak emissions before 2030, it was a watershed moment in the global fight against climate change.
But seven months later, one question in particular hangs over those goals: can the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide kick its addiction to coal?
Coal has powered China’s breakneck economic growth over the past four decades, but it also presents one of the biggest challenges to its climate ambitions. 
Given that new coal-fired power plants are still being built and that steel plants will be needed, I would expect coal to continue to play a significant, though declining, role for many years
Dr Philip Andrews-Speed
Although many scientists and policymakers in Beijing want to see the country hasten its transition away from the fossil fuel, concerns about energy security, economic stability and the powerful interests of cash-strapped local governments and giant state-owned enterprises are all pulling China the other way. 
“Given that new coal-fired power plants are still being built and that steel plants will be needed, I would expect coal to continue to play a significant, though declining, role for many years,” said Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, senior principal fellow at the Energy Studies Institute in Singapore and a China energy expert.
China’s relationship with coal is critical to global efforts to tackle climate change. It is the world’s largest producer of coal and consumes more than half of global supplies.
The country’s total installed coal capacity is estimated at 1050 gigawatts, larger than all other countries combined, according to Global Energy Monitor. 


Mindful of overcapacity and smog belching power stations that have contributed to pollution in cities, Beijing has taken steps to decommission the oldest and most inefficient coal plants in recent years.
In October 2020, Shanxi province announced plans to consolidate five large state-owned companies into a mega coal producer to improve efficiency in the industry.
But new plants continue to be built. China commissioned 76 per cent of the world’s new coal-fired power plants in 2020, about 38.4GW, offsetting a shift away from coal in the rest of the world, Global Energy Monitor said in a report released earlier this month.
That has left some experts wondering how China plans to transition from coal – and whether it can do it in time. 
“If we look at the 14th five-year plan period, I didn’t see a clear road map to phase out coal in this part of the world,” said Kevin Tu, non-resident fellow at the Centre on Global Energy Policy and adjunct professor at the School of Environment of Beijing Normal University.
China has announced that its future power system will be dominated by renewable energy, and yet it is unclear when this will be accomplished
Dr Jiang Lin
The 14th five-year plan, an economic development blueprint for the period between 2021-25, proposed to increase the share of non-fossil fuel energy in China’s energy mix to 20 per cent by 2025, up from 15.8 per cent in 2020.
It also set modest goals to reduce energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 13.5 per cent and cut carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 18 per cent.
But it contained no absolute cap on coal use or carbon dioxide emissions. Many advocates for China’s shift away from coal hope further details will be released in sectoral five-year plans later this year. 
“It would be very helpful for China to define its timetable to reduce emissions by key sectors of its economy, and in particular in reducing consumption of coal,” said Dr Jiang Lin, a China energy expert at University of California, Berkeley.
“For example, China has announced that its future power system will be dominated by renewable energy, and yet it is unclear when this will be accomplished.”


China must almost completely phase out coal by 2050 to reach its carbon neutral goal by 2060, experts said.
“Our analysis indicates that this is achievable as early as 2040, so long as China stops building new unabated coal power plants, and starts planned retirement of the existing coal fleet,” said Lin.
The country has already reduced the share of coal in its overall energy mix from 70 per cent 10 years ago to 56.8 per cent last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, and it is the world’s largest investor in renewable energy. 
On Monday, China’s National Energy Administration proposed to boost power generation from solar and wind sources to around 11 per cent of the country’s total in 2021, from 9.7 per cent in 2020, with that figure rising to 16.5 per cent by 2025.
Nuclear power will also play an increasingly important role. In its 14th five-year plan, Beijing set a new target of 70GW of nuclear capacity in 2025, up from 51GW last year. Last week, five nuclear power units, with a total installed capacity of 4.9 gigawatts, or roughly 10 per cent of the country’s total, were approved for construction, according to Reuters.
Security and stability are the main concerns against coal phase-out in China
Dr Ryna Cui
But coal will remain a mainstay in China’s energy mix for decades to come, due to limitations in the scalability of renewables, nuclear and natural gas, as well as overarching economic concerns, experts said.
“Security and stability are the main concerns against coal phase-out in China,” said Dr Ryna Cui, assistant research professor and co-director for the China Programme at the Centre for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy.
“This includes a broad set of issues, such as energy security to ensure stable electricity supply with increasing [use of] intermittent renewables, economic stability to reduce stranded assets and lower impacts on coal-dependent economies, and social stability to avoid large lay-offs of coal employment.”
China’s coal supply chain is so well established it will be difficult to dismantle quickly, said Tu. Coal-fired power is more affordable and competitive than in Europe or the United States, and capital costs for new coal plants can be recovered relatively quickly, he said.


There are also vested interests at play. Notably, regional governments across China unleashed a coal plant construction boom following the coronavirus outbreak, pumping cheap credit into dirty energy projects to boost growth and generate demand for locally mined coal.
“Every province aims to have enough thermal power capacity to cover peak loads without relying on imports from other provinces – this leads to enormous amounts of redundant capacity and economic waste, and will make the low-carbon transition harder,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Ahead of the closely-watched Earth Day Summit this week, China and the US pledged to work together to take “concrete actions in the 2020s to reduce emissions” and cooperate in efforts to meet the Paris climate target of limiting the rise of global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
But Beijing will enter the talks on Thursday without a well-defined strategy on how to curb the use of coal.
Analysts say that needs to change, and fast.
China’s ban on Australian coal drives diversification, but can it fill the gap?
In the short term, coal use in buildings and industrial small boilers should be eliminated and old inefficient plants should be shut down, Cui said. 
Then, most of the remaining plants need to gradually switch from baseload generation to only providing electricity during times of peak demand to support renewable energy, before coal is either completely phased out or operated with carbon capture, utilisation and storage technology (CCUS), she added.
Deploying CCUS technology – which captures carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and from heavy industry – in newer ultra supercritical coal plants will allow China some room until renewable energy and nuclear power can be scaled up.
Most new coal-fired power plants built in China over the past decade have been ultra supercritical, which use more efficient technology and have less emissions than conventional subcritical plants. 


However, an ultra-supercritical coal power plant might only emit 10 per cent less carbon per unit of electricity generated than a conventional coal plant in China, Myllyvirta said.
To meet emissions reductions targets, analysts say they need to be paired with CCUS technology, which has so far failed to meet expectations because of its expense and high energy efficiency penalty.
According to the International Energy Agency, there are only 21 large CCUS facilities around the world, including in China.
“It is still uncertain about how CCUS might be deployed by Chinese companies in the coming decades,” said Tu.
Coal and construction-heavy recovery from the Covid-19 shock have seen China move in the opposite direction, and the outline of the five-year plan indicated very gradual progress
Lauri Myllyvirta
Those pushing for quick decarbonisation of China’s economy say there are already plenty of solutions to replace coal and maintain power system reliability through improved grid operation and dispatch rules, better pricing and demand reduction. Investing in renewables, meanwhile, could also lead to new jobs. 
Myllyvirta said the big question remains how fast China’s leadership is prepared to shift away from high-carbon growth. 
“The recent jump in coal power projects and other high-carbon infrastructure, and coal and construction-heavy recovery from the Covid-19 shock have seen China move in the opposite direction, and the outline of the five-year plan indicated very gradual progress. 
“On the other hand, [President] Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasised that the carbon neutrality goal is a major strategic direction and these coming five years are crucial, which does sound like there is an expectation of higher ambition.”
 


China’s five-year plan for the new-energy vehicle sector

Why climate extremes will not stop expansion of China’s nuclear power industry

China taps high-altitude winds for power generation by flying craft to 4,000m

China’s five-year plan for its oil and gas sector

China’s carbon neutral goal

China’s carbon neutral goal: can it really kick its coal addiction to achieve its 2060 target?

Coal has powered China’s breakneck economic growth over the past four decades, but it also presents one of the biggest challenges to its climate ambitions. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Tracing China’s climate change journey from denial to decarbonisation

China is expected to join a climate change summit of global leaders on Thursday. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

China-Australia relations: China turns to US coal to fill void created by Australia import ban, offers trade deal boost

China unofficially blocked Australian coal imports in October amid a year-long political conflict, leaving many vessels stranded off its coast, before switching to imports from the US, South Africa and Colombia having previously relied on the likes of Indonesia, Russia, Mongolia and Australia. Photo: Bloomberg

China unofficially blocked Australian coal imports in October amid a year-long political conflict, leaving many vessels stranded off its coast, before switching to imports from the US, South Africa and Colombia having previously relied on the likes of Indonesia, Russia, Mongolia and Australia. Photo: AFP

China’s carbon neutral ‘transformation’ could cost US$6.4 trillion, but plan has ‘Achilles’ heel’

In addition to its carbon neutrality goal, China has pledged to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by “at least” 65 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. Photo: Reuters

In addition to its carbon neutrality goal, China has pledged to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by “at least” 65 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. Photo: Getty Images

China’s carbon neutral push gathers pace as coal-fired power plants drop below 50 per cent for first time

The change in the power generation mix was driven by China’s wind power capacity rising by 178 per cent, its solar energy capacity by 60 per cent and its hydropower capacity by 217 per cent, the report from Fitch Ratings said. Photo: Xinhua

China’s 2060 carbon neutral pledge ‘incompatible’ with expansion of oil and gas pipelines, study says

China has 34,273km of oil and gas transmission pipelines under construction or in construction planning stages – more than any other nation based on the total length of projects – with most being developed to handle an increase in gas supplies, said the report by the Global Energy Monitor. Photo: KazMunayGas

China has 34,273km of oil and gas transmission pipelines under construction or in construction planning stages – more than any other nation based on the total length of projects – with most being developed to handle an increase in gas supplies, said the report by the Global Energy Monitor. Photo: Xinhua

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China’s climate change journey

What can China bring to the climate change summit table?

The EU and US are reportedly pressuring China to make its climate targets more aggressive. Illustration: Brian Wang

China and the US, the world’s two biggest carbon polluters, have agreed to cooperate to tackle climate change ahead of the Leaders Summit on Climate. Photo: EPA-EFE


Phasing out the use of coal is one of the biggest challenges facing China as it works towards peaking emissions by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060
Despite climate ambitions, energy security and economic stability will drive use of the fossil fuel in world’s second largest economy for decades, say experts



Despite China’s climate ambitions, energy security and economic stability will drive the use of coal in the world’s second largest economy for decades to come, experts say.
