Global Impact newsletter: escalating conflict in the South China Sea

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world

In the eighth edition we will look at rising tensions in the South China Sea and how this has increased the chances for armed conflict between China and the US

Reading Time:4 minutes

Published: 2:00pm, 21 Sep 2020Updated: 4:04pm, 6 Nov 2020

If you want to start a world war, a good way to do it is to mix the escalating conflict between two of the world’s greatest military powers with the grievances of a half-dozen smaller countries over territorial claims.

That’s the current situation in the South China Sea, the massive body of water that stretches more than 4,000km (2,485 miles) from mainland China in the north to Indonesia in the south – about the same distance between London and Chicago.

China has claimed the vast majority of the South China Sea as its exclusive territory, including areas claimed by six other governments – Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam – that consider them part of their own exclusive economic zones. A map of the conflicting claims can be seen in this graphic presentation, while the history of China’s territorial disputes, including in the South China Sea, is explained in this video.

China considers the South China Sea one of its “core” interests, of equal importance as Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, meaning it is ready to go to war to defend it. It has marked the territory by a “nine dash line” on its maps, and even on its passports, angering its neighbours.

China needs the oil and mineral wealth hidden beneath the South China Sea to supply its rapid economic recovery, as well as the fishing catch needed to feed the country’s 1.4 billion stomachs.

An international tribunal ruled in 2016 that China did not have the right to claim the South China Sea as its sovereign territory, a ruling that China has pointedly rejected.