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China economy
Economy
Weihuan Zhou
Henry Gao
Weihuan ZhouandHenry Gao

Opinion | China and the CPTPP: is it time to rethink Beijing’s involvement in the trans-Pacific trade pact?

  • China’s attitude towards joining the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement has moved from suspicion to a more open-minded approach
  • The trade pact could serve China’s own development goals and would accelerate its market-oriented reforms

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Comprised of 11 Asia-Pacific economies, the CPTPP is currently the largest trade bloc in the region and the third largest worldwide. Photo: Xinhua
Weihuan ZhouandHenry Gao

In a press conference held for the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress on May 28, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reaffirmed Beijing’s interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Comprised of 11 Asia-Pacific economies, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is currently the largest trade bloc in the region and the third largest worldwide, covering around 13.5 per cent of global merchandise trade. According to studies of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, China’s entry will yield massive economic benefits to China and the existing members, leading to – approximately – a 50 per cent trade expansion and a 76.7 per cent increase in global income gains to US$632 billion.

The CPTPP is the final product of the negotiation of the widely-known Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which was led by the United States from 2008 until US President Donald Trump withdrew from it in January 2017.

For the pre-Trump administrations, the TPP played a crucial role in the US strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific by seeking to exert influence on regional economic integration and contain the rise of China.

While China was excluded from the negotiations, its attitude toward the TPP has evolved over time from being highly suspicious of the political motivation behind it to open-minded while carefully weighing the pros and cons of the agreement.

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Although Premier Li’s statement is a reiteration of China’s open-minded approach, it did not go beyond the existing position. This suggests that China’s decision-makers and stakeholders remain uncertain as to whether the benefits of the CPTPP membership would outweigh the costs and therefore remain divided on whether to proceed.

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