Opinion | How overreaching reformers could doom the WTO

Trade ministers heading to Abu Dhabi next month for the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference are unlikely to revive the moribund World Trade Organization unless they narrow their ambitions and focus on reworking the trade referee’s core function: dispute resolution.

Time is working against their unwieldy agenda. The window of opportunity will close by spring when US electioneering heats up and China’s eagerness for rapprochement wanes with its economy set to rebound.

Reformers aim to transform the WTO into a formidable tool to advance sustainable development, shore up workers’ rights and mitigate climate change. A mounting complaint, as the German Council on Foreign Relations explains, is the organisation’s failure to “adequately address pressing global challenges such as food security, pandemic responses and climate change”.

The WTO confronts a global economy that the IMF contends is increasingly fragmented. Trade barriers have nearly tripled since 2019 to almost 3,000 in 2022. Trade restrictions are being added at the highest monthly rate since the WTO started counting in 2015.

The International Monetary Fund projects that protectionism will slow global economic output by as much as 7 per cent in the long term, or some US$7.4 trillion. Global trade contracted by an estimated 5 per cent last year, with South-South trade experiencing the sharpest decrease, according to the United Nations.