Opinion

North Korea at a crossroads: what will Kim give for an economic miracle?

He will have to give up nuclear weapons and the current Juche ideology – political reform must precede economic reforms

To encourage this, the world’s powers must offer compensation for denuclearisation, guarantee the survival of his regime, and provide at least 10 years of economic support

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Dr. Chan Young Bang is the founder and president of KIMEP University, principal investigator at the DPRK Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first President of Kazakhstan.

Published: 5:30am, 4 Jan 2024Updated: 6:35am, 4 Jan 2024

North Korea is at a crossroads and faces a serious challenge: it can either hope to survive as a nuclear weapon state or thrive by implementing market-oriented reforms, trading nuclear weapons for a bright future.

The record shows that every country that has adopted a socialist system has either collapsed or transformed into a market socialist economy. North Korea is confronted with the same fate.

Should supreme leader Kim Jong-un decide to preserve the socialist system under the ruling Juche ideology, North Korea will decline as he transitions from power. Conversely, should he trade his nuclear weapons for a more prosperous future, the nation will be able to achieve a rapid and sustained economic development unprecedented in history.

To achieve this, Kim must overcome three challenges: First, he must make an unyielding commitment to achieve economic development by modernising the economic system, and to enhance the economic well-being of the entire population.