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Opinion
Philippines stockpiling bilateral deals to counter Beijing in South China Sea won’t work
- Talks with Tokyo on a military base reciprocal access agreement are the latest Philippine effort to bolster the forces Manila can rely on to confront China
- However, agreements with Japan and the US would not apply if the Philippines takes aggressive action in the territory of another state
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Nearly 50 years after the last Japanese second world war soldier – Hiroo Onoda – surrendered to the Philippines in 1974, Japanese military forces are expected to put boots on the ground once again, this time on invitation rather than in aggression.
Not satisfied with relying on the United States to provoke China in the South China Sea, the Philippines announced in early November negotiations with Japan to boost their military alliance, including an agreement granting reciprocal access to their military bases. Their military chiefs stressed the need for prompt finalisation of the agreement during their recent December 22 meeting.
The Philippines has its own reasons for expanding military alliances. The illusion is that the US and Japan would render assistance if a situation arises where the Philippines engages with China over the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
The logic is that the more such bilateral agreements the Philippines has, the more military forces the Philippines can rely on to confront China. However, neither a reciprocal access agreement with Japan nor the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) and Visiting Forces Agreement with the US provide the Philippines with legal tools to provoke China in the South China Sea.
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