Opinion | 3 reasons China is at the forefront of European foreign policy concerns

The last year has solidified China’s status as one of the most salient foreign-policy challenges facing Europe. But it has been a long time coming. China’s emergence at the forefront of debate in Europe is the product of three political realisations since 2020.

The first was the recognition, triggered by the pandemic, that Europe had become dependent on China for a wide range of goods. After decades of single-mindedly pursuing comparative advantage by relocating industries beyond its borders, Europe had to face hard facts.

The stakes have since risen considerably, because China has a virtual monopoly over the production and/or refining of raw materials essential to the clean-energy transition. There is no ready-made solution to this. Vigilance and political prudence will be necessary.

The second political realisation came after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Though China did not, strictly speaking, support Russia’s actions, it also refused to push back against the Kremlin, in hopes the war would weaken the United States and Nato. Having adopted a zero-sum mindset, Chinese leaders assumed any such weakening would benefit China.

With Russia struggling in Ukraine, China’s hopes of a major blow to the West are probably dwindling; its main objective now is to limit its exposure. Still, China’s leaders recognise that Russia is becoming practically a vassal state, which lends China greater strategic depth and enables it to extract economic benefits, such as favourable energy deals.